Alex’s Notes: One thing I noticed in this article is that the author states that forward sales of gold production is “normal” activity for gold miners.

I would point out, that it is only “normal” if the cost of production is above the price of gold.

If a miner is strapped for liquidity, and is forced to forward sell its gold in order to continue operations, then you have a situation where they are willing to do so in order to maintain adequate cashflow levels.

This has nothing to do with reality – if the Gold price was actually where it should be, then the cost of producing it wouldnt be higher than the gold price.

Its a self -feeding mechanism – bullion banks participate in gold leasing, which creates false supply (to the tune of 500 tonnes a year according to the article), which forces gold prices down, which causes miners to forward sell gold in the first place because they cannot profitably produce it.

I am reminded of an ancient saying: “The borrower becomes servant to the lender”.

What does this mean for you and I?

Well, if you own gold, and banks reverse course and start buying instead of creating an artificial 500 tons a year, it could mean quite alot.

Got gold?

*****

The aggressive monetary policy of central banks around the world is playing havoc with the structure of the bullion market, creating a chronic shortage of gold that may soon push the metal to fresh records above $1,500 an ounce.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:11PM BST 20 Apr 2009

Charles Gibson, a gold expert at Edison Investment Research, argues in a new report that negative real interest rates (below inflation) in the US and beyond has upset the “leasing” machinery in the gold industry and led to a sustained market squeeze.

This is what occurred in the late 1970s, driving gold prices to $850 and ounce – roughly $1,560 in today’s terms. Gold finished last week at $870.

(more…)

by The Mogambo Guru
Tampa Bay, Florida

MoneyNews.Newsmax.com had the interesting headline “Mints Rush to Meet
Gold Coin Demand.” It starts off with a blockbuster statement, namely
that the world is in “crisis mode”. In fact, a report by The
Independent in the United Kingdom notes, “With the world economy now in
crisis mode, gold coin production is rising” all over the place, with
the result that, “As investor appetite for gold increases worldwide,
nations which mint coins of the precious metal have hiked production to
satisfy the growing demand.”

In fact, demand for gold is so high that “Sales in the United States of
the one-ounce gold American Eagle coin, minted from gold bullion,
soared more than 400 percent in 2008 over previous sales to 710,000
ounces” which seems like a lot until you remember that the gold mines
of the world produce about 80 million ounces of new gold per year, and
so 710,000 ounces ain’t really squat, in the Big Scheme Of Things
(BSOT).

(more…)

 Your Road Map to the Bull Market in Gold

By Jeff Clark, editor, BIG GOLD

Does this sound like your world?

You trudge to the office, nervous about keeping your job. Some of your friends are out of work. The economy struggles, and recession seems just around the corner. Stores where you once shopped are now closed. Americans are still shooting and being shot at in the Middle East. The price of oil is far off its peak but remains high.

The government has promised action, but frankly you don’t like the president’s ideas nor trust the government’s judgment, since they don’t seem to notice that the budget and trade deficits are huge and show no sign of easing. 

You invested in some gold and gold stocks, but they’re all down. Everything has lost value. Things are looking grim indeed.

If any of this sounds familiar, you’ve got a good memory. It’s what was happening in November 1975.

Yes, things didn’t look so rosy back then, either. And yet look how November 1975 fits into gold’s bigger picture:

Gold During the 1970s Bull Market

Now compare that chart to today’s…

Gold During the Current Bull Market

You’ll see that from 1970 to 1974, gold rose 400%. In our market (2000 to 2008), gold climbed 290% to its March 2008 peak.

From 1974 to 1976, gold fell 40%. In the current market, gold has fallen 31% in eight months, a much steeper decline.

Finally, during the three-year rise leading to gold’s peak of $850 in 1980, it gained 670% from its 1976 low.

This year’s gold price has been behaving much as it did in 1975.

So where will the price be a few years from now? I can tell you that Casey Research expects gold’s chart to look more and more like the 1970s before this is over. The U.S. government has only very recently fired the starting gun for racing inflation, but it has fired it very loudly.

In just the last two months, the Fed has increased the basic money supply (cash in circulation plus deposits held by commercial banks at the 12 Federal Reserve Banks) by nearly 50%. Nothing close to such a rapid increase has ever happened before in the U.S. It’s the kind of news that normally comes only from desperate banana republics. And it always means rapid price inflation is on the way.

What the Federal Reserve has done in the last two months guarantees high inflation. But the timing is unknown. In fact, it’s unknowable.

Looking at the past, a pop in the basic money supply gets felt strongly throughout the financial markets within six months or so. But that’s just the average experience, with some inflationary episodes running much faster and others running much slower. And our current situation is anything but average – very recent but extreme money growth colliding with a years-old but extreme credit crisis.

So we’ll have to sit and let the timing show itself. And if what you are sitting on is gold, you should sit comfortably. Patience served gold investors well in the mid-70s. It will serve them well again.

Regards,

Jeff Clark

You are an investor in physical metal and like Marty of “Back to the Future II” you have stumbled into a nightmare world of $10.00 and whatever cents silver (you may have bought back when it was $15-$20 and thought you were doing well) wondering how can you change this distorted world to a peaceful “Hill valley” of the movie and a reality of honest pricing.

Biff / Griff Tannen aka the SEC/CFTC (Securities exchange commission and Commodity Futures Trade Commission) should look like this picture of a nice old chap that cleans your car and keeps the house in order. Not unreasonable given its position of watchdog to the markets.

Instead its accusers of late charge it with sitting in a Jacuzzi laughing at all of us who have invested in real metal or stocks or anything it has involvement with and we only need to look at the decimated mining industry savaged by naked short selling to understand real investors have been getting hammered of late.

If the odds are so stacked then what can I do?

Make Sure you have physical metal and consider the importance of international diversification where you have privacy and ease of deposit / withdrawal as well as physical holdings on your person.

I say that because history has a bad way of correcting in as abrupt a way as Marty and Doc saving the day!

Let’s look at Nickel in 2006. One moment it was meandering happily nowhere while physical shortages built up and the watchdogs did nothing and then out of the blue it exploded

Check out the fine print of the SEC’s announcement back then and my graph showing the rocket launch in price

LME’s press release of August 16 –
“Those with short positions in nickel falling prompt on Friday 18 August 2006, and on subsequent prompt dates until further notice, who are unable to effect physical delivery an/or unable to borrow metal at a backwardation of no more than $300.00 per tonne per day, shall be able to defer delivery for a day at a penalty of $300.00 per tonne. Those with long positions for prompt on those days who are subject to deferred delivery shall be entitled to compensation of $300.00 per tonne per day

I have spoken openly about the laughable situation back in March where silver and gold broke fresh heights all on the back of a Monday morning “ Bears Stern” collapse and that was hardly up there with the plethora of banking collapses of late. It was just a lower pecking order bank and if you watch CNBC, the promo of Dylan Ratigan, host of “Fast Money” saying “tonight your money is safe” in their advertising of the channel now looks hilarious referring to the following day when Bears Sterns affairs were taken over and gold and silver came off sharply supposedly signaling – we are all ok now!

Yay!

Hey Dylan, hello, hello (I am holding the staff now banging away to anyone listening) … that was back then, is everything ok now?

I am not poking fun at Dylan as this TV commercial promo is just a simple clip  of the deception people seem trapped in right now .Who and what do you believe because clearly there are millions around the world asking this very question “ is their money safe”?

Anyway I digress- back to the future!

Oh yes, we all know that Biff will get biffed out of his own hotel and the regulatory authorities will stand and say “this is a new day” and they have fired the old guys cleaned the rules up….blah..blah (just listen to McCain yell out what he plans for Chris Cox, head of the SEC assuming either he or Obama win)……but that’s a fat lot of good to investors holding paper un backed by anything. You only have to look at the heads of failed institutions that presided over the mess and then walked away with fat severance packages. You are still left in the cold!

I ask one of the heads of the company I affiliate to who deal every day with the suppliers as to what is happening right now re premiums given they buy the 1000 oz LBMA good delivery bars at the best price. He replies “there is a disparity albeit modest but who knows where that can go as the paper and real market head opposite direction” says Director -Simon Heapes.” We spend a few minutes discussing the London gold pool of the 60’s and how $35.00 supposed gold price traded in terms of real metal at $44.00 to quote actual events.

If you can have disparity at refinery account supplier level then its small wonder the smaller bars can command even bigger premiums. Have you ever asked yourself what happens when there is a run on a market clearing stock as to what goes first?

A/ the most expensive largest items or
B/ the smaller retail sized items

Anyone looking at this hydro dam of cracks and water spouts would have to be blind to see it needs some engineers to fix it and fast and that is exactly where the SEC and CFTC are supposed to stand in the breach and do their jobs

Histories most ancient of money becomes ever more worthless in this alternate “Back to the future reality” and you must ask yourself the same question all do when a real crisis hits

What is money?

Well hold on to the real stuff as you are about to find out!

http://www.anglofareast.com/afeannouncementbailment2.html

AFE locked away 5 metric ton of allocated silver bars and tens of 1000’s more oz’s of gold in this bailment. Independent Auditor from Grant Thornton, Zurich  in attendance during bailment of silver bars, Philip Judge holding a 400oz gold ‘Good Delivery Bar’ alongside several ton of silver bars during AFE’s  Bullion bailment at ViaMat Securities, Zurich.

Word on the street is large buyers ex comex are getting called and attempted persuasion to settle in cash, not in physical delivery. This is a rare opportunity to dollar cost average previous purchases as some are already doing or simply get in at one of those exceptionally low moments just like last Friday!

10 October , 2008 gold closes 849.90 and silver 10.14

For me, at this low price level of a few years ago, I do the best when my clients can get more bang for buck as I earn in ounces as a percentage of what they get so the sooner we have 1000 oz bars going for $1.00 an ounce and a free set of steak knives thrown in, the better we are all off and the faster we can all move on just as history has done before and go “Back to the real future!”

Disclosure ; Duncan Cameron is an affiliate of “Anglo Far East” and endorses bullion holdings on your person mixed with international diversification via this company that has rigorous 3rd party auditing procedures to verify clients holdings. Whilst I trade, make no mistake, trading is a pastime that can never replace core bullion holdings.

http://www.anglofareast.com/broker/dc-001

This week has seen the US Government bail out a growing number of Wall Street firms, the largest insurance company in the world, and finally end at printing money without subjecting the backing instruments to international market scrutiny.

(Treasury is now selling T-Bills DIRECTLY to the Fed, no pretense of going through an investment bank anymore)

This is pretty shady stuff, and thats being kind.

To understand why this is BAD, we have to understand why inflation is bad.

Yes of course, inflation is bad because prices go up, but that is not what inflation really is, prices going up is just what happens AFTER inflation occurs.

Put simply, inflation is when you add more currency to the currency supply.

Price increases happen, because when you add more currency then each unit of currency already in existence becomes worth less.

So prices rising arent so much because what you are buying is worth MORE than it was a year ago, but simply because your dollar is worth LESS.

So, the reason I explained that to you, is so you can understand what happens when the Government “bails out” all these failing financial institutions.

Really, two things happen:

1. The government creates Treasury Bills, which it then sells to someone, usually an investment bank and now, the Federal Reserve. In exchange, Congress gets currency from the investment bank, or the Federal Reserve, to spend on Bridges to no-where, military toys, and bailouts of corrupt, overpaid, Wall Street Slicksters who are their buddies.

Guess who gets to pay for that? Thats right, US Taxpayers! Arent you excited?!

2. The second thing that happens is, “liquidity”, which is a fancy term for more money, gets injected into the currency supply because this currency was essentially just “created” in order to bail out these silly greedy Wall Street slicksters and the firms who happen to be buddy buddy with our Congressman and Senators.

Ok, so, what happens when we inject all this currency into the system? Thats right, you guessed it, the value of your dollar goes down, prices go up!!!

So essentially, each time one of these Wall Street firms gets bailed out, the value of your dollar to buy groceries and gas, GOES DOWN, so groceries and gas become more expensive.

Now obviously, if you are a Wall Street Slickster,  you are happy with this deal, because you get to do all kinds of stupid things, then get some silly taxpayer shmuck to pay for your severance package of hundreds of millions of dollars anyway.

If you are a Congressman or Senator of course, this is all good, because lots of cash flows into your tax haven bank accounts from your Wall Street buddies, you get to ride around in fancy cars and go to fancy fundraiser dinners, and you get a HUGE pension for life, even if you dont do crap your entire time in office.

AWESOME! Its good to be the King. Or in this case, a Congressman or Senator.

Now now, Mr. taxpayer, dont complain, you should just shutup and eat your gruel, and be happy to get it! Peasants! Your lucky we dont raise taxes to 85% and then make you WALK to work!

But whats really got me miffed right now, even beyond the fact that our “leaders” have no problem raping the wealth of US Citizens to bail out a bunch of greedy, stupid, people who are already rich anyways, all the while destroying the buying power of the common man AND taxing the common man on top of it to pay for all this shenanigans…

Is that just when we think its IMPOSSIBLE for our leaders to get any more stupid, this happens:

President Bush approved the use of existing authorities by Treasury secretary Hank Paulson to make available as necessary the assets of the Exchange Stabilisation Fund for up to $50 billion to buy more illiquid mortgage assets.

When the Government bailed out the the Government Sponsored Enterprises it promised to buy illiquid mortgage backed securities, but this announcement extends that pledge.

The ESF was created after the Great Depression and uses the US gold reserve as collateral for financial stability.

So what does all that mean?

Basically, it could very well be the dumbest thing any group of government officials has ever done, in history.

This is a quote from the website of the US Treasury describing what the “Exchange Stabilization Fund” is:

The Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) of the United States Treasury was created and originally financed by the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 to contribute to exchange rate stability and counter disorderly conditions in the foreign exchange market. The Act authorized the Secretary of the Treasury, to deal in gold, foreign exchange, securities, and instruments of credit, under the exclusive control of the Secretary of the Treasury subject to the approval of the President.

This is my translation:

This thing gives Mr. Paulson, who already has WAY to much authority, the ability to sell off the gold stocks of the United States, manipulating the gold price down, to prop up the US Dollar and make all the sheeple think that gold is falling and the markets and USD are rallying, so all the stupid people can pour more money into the markets, bail out the corrupt Wall Street Slicksters, impoverish and steal the wealth of US Citizens, and perpetuate the scam that the USD which happens to be backed by nothing is actually worth something insteading doing whats smart and backing our currency in gold.

They are going to sell off gold into the international market, which is going to depress the gold price, and use the money to prop up the US Dollar, the stock market, and to try and ‘neutralize’ all this garbage derivative crap that Wall Street has been creating over the last ten years or so.

This isnt just any gold mind you, its the reserves of the United States, belonging to citizens of the United States.

So not only are these guys willing to tax you to pay for bailouts, which then adds currency to the currency supply, which then reduces your buying power, but now, they are selling off the bedrock of the nations financial health, the gold stocks that belong to YOU as a US Citizen, to again save a bunch of fools who probably should have been hung from the gallows a long time ago.

If that does not infuriate you, well….

A brief prediction.

I dont like to make predictions, because predictions usually make a guy look stupid later, but here it is:

The gold price will drop, they will use this as another means to manage the gold price, stocks and the USD will rise or remain level, they HOPE through the elections in November.

This of course is only short term. A band-aid on a gushing severed limb, if you will.

They are willing to sacrifice the nations financial future, and the well being of our children and grandchildren, just to get one more US President in office and perpetuate the non-sense.

But at what cost?

Ultimately, Gold ALWAYS revalues to match the amount of currency that gets pumped into a currency system.

This is not a theory, its not conjecture, history proves it happens over and over, every single time, as predictable as the seasons.

Over the long term we will see the US Dollar devalued, the gold stocks of the United States depleted just when they are needed the most, the common citizen robbed of everything he has through inflation and taxation to bail out those who do not deserve to be saved, and worse case scenario, it could cost citizens of America our freedom and form of government in the end.

We will see the government start to directly monetize debt as a matter of habit, and once that occurs the United States is on the road to hyperinflation.

Solution?

Anchor your finances in gold and silver now while you still can.

“Unjust weights and measures are an abomination unto the Lord” – What is an unjust weight and measure? How about a piece of currency that changes in value constantly? If something is a “measure” it has to remain constant, not change in value.

If you were a carpenter trying to build a house, and the tape measure you used to measure your cuts changed all the time, how solid would your house be?

I am of the opinion that if this thing goes down the tubes, and there is no indication that Congress, the Senate, The President, The Secretary of the Treasury, or the Federal Reserve Chairman have any inkling as to how to prevent it based on recent decisions, then the ONLY safe place in this coming storm is gold and silver.

Those who have gold and silver, will see a huge transfer of wealth to them. Those who dont….well….sorry. Get used to gruel and string vests.

Buy Gold and Silver Bullion

Dont Look, and Dont Tell..Paper Gold Prices have decoupled from Physical Gold Demand and Supply

I was having a chat with several colleagues of mine in the precious metals industry over the last few days, and a few things have become readily apparent.

1. The massive sell off in paper gold contracts has forced the paper price down substantially

2. The majority of this sell off appears to be coming from large financial entities in liquidity crisis, and desperate for some relief and cash flow that are divesting themselves of metals

3. This does not reflect what the common man investor of gold and silver is looking for, as demand at the retail level is many fold higher than it has been in some time, with some of my colleagues completely inundated with buy orders that they cannot keep up with, nor find physical stocks to provide from

4. Physical supply at the retail level has seriously dried up, especially in silver, but now in gold as well, as it seems the US Mint has ceased taking orders for new American Eagle Gold 1oz coins. In addition, throughout the US on a retail level reports of physical shortage are common.

So what gives here? How is it possible that the prices of metals have plummeted, yet there is no metal to be found anywhere at retail?

A few possibilities come to mind:

If hedge funds are divesting themselves of metal, yet individual investors are buying like never before at the retail level, it may not impact the paper gold or silver price at all, except for the downside, because its doubtful that the few options traders are going to be able to meet what hedge funds can dump. A hedge fund that is on emergency life support and demanding liquidity may exit its metal positions at any cost, and not be met by buyers, as most retail investors are buying at coin shops and not the COMEX or NYMEX.

I have a colleague who has informed me that he has personal knowledge of a default of a delivery of metal on COMEX, the contract holder being forced to take Fiat currency instead of the metal because he got “bumped” at the warehouse because an Industrial user took precedence. What does something like this say about our markets if true?

Is it possible we are looking at trading defaults on a larger scale? Will such trades move to other exchanges in London and Asia? Will such defaults cause a London Gold Pool type escalation in valuation as history records of similar events?

Will actual physical prices decouple from the paper spot price? I suspect this is likely, and in fact we are already seeing such premiums at the retail level. It is my opinion this will only continue, and accelerate as we move farther into this bull market.

While the paper markets will continue to see sharp volatility over the next few years as financial institutions require liquidity infusions to offset the massive write-offs that have still not been reported from the credit crisis, mom and pop investors are buying all they can get their hands on, and not reselling back into the market as has been normal for many years.

No, this marks a definate turning point, and while some will only watch the price action and continue to declare gold no more than a commodity and barbarous relic, some will understand the deep fundamental factors in the economy that will force gold to revalue higher over time.

Yes, some of us will be doing quite well as this unfolds. The question now is, will you? Time is running out. You will either be a fool or a prophet.

Buy Gold and Silver Bullion

The Case for Gold Today

by: Charlie Bottle posted on: July 28, 2008

“With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people.” – Friedrich Von Hayek

I’m not advocating a return to the gold standard but when governments lose on printing money, as is the case today, investors should buy gold.

The analysis set forth in this article is focused on gold but the same conclusions are largely applicable to the other precious metals with monetary characteristics: silver and platinum.

Gold has been trading in a $900-$1,000 which all time high, slightly above the 1980 brief peak above the $800 range, however, on an inflation adjusted basis (please see chart below) it is still way below the peak and average range during the stagflation period of the seventies; a period that greatly resembles of current macro-economic setting.

I expect gold to continue to appreciate substantially in the medium and long term, with strong chances of moving in a sustained fashion above $2,000 within the next two to three years.

There are perhaps about 130,000 tons of gold above the ground, with about half in jewelry, 40% in bars and coins (of which 30% with central banks and 10% with individuals) and the remaining 10% are in dental and industrial applications.

The total annual demand of gold is currently just under 4,000 tons and breaks down roughly as follows:

• Industrial and Dental: 400 tons (10%)
• Consumer: 3,600 tons (90%)
  o Fashion jewelry: 800 (20%)
  o Investment jewelry: 2,600 tons (60%)
  o Investment (bars and coins) 400 tons (10%)

This demand far outpaces mining production of 2,600 tons, and is met by the following supply:

• Mining: 2,600 tons (65%)
• Net central bank net sales: 800 tons (20%)
• Scrap: 600 tons (15%)

Demand growth should accelerate fueled by the need for a hedge against increased inflation, and against ongoing political and financial uncertainty, as well as growth in emerging markets middle class income.

Gold as an inflation hedge and insurance against political and financial distress

The point on inflation is self-evident as many emerging markets have double digit inflation rates (e.g. Russia 15%, Vietnam 20%, Turkey 11%, Chile 10%, Argentina 10%), or close to that (China 7%, Brazil 6%, India 8%).

In the United States, headline inflation is at about 5% and the public is becoming increasingly aware of the lack of accuracy of the reported inflation figures.

There is much controversy about the effectiveness of gold as an inflation hedge, with substantial research pointing to real estate and stocks as being better hedges. Even if this is the case, considering the ongoing bursting of the real estate bubble and negative trend in equity prices, it seems quite likely that gold will be the preferred hedge. In any case, there is consensus that there is a negative correlation between the value of the dollar and gold prices (see chart below) and that gold substantially maintains its buying power over long periods of time.

The risks of insolvency of the domestic financial system, with a growing number of financial institution bankruptcies, and the resulting risk of ballooning US government debt (from propping up GSEs and possibly in the near future FDIC and Federal Home Loan Bank systems), provide politically expedient incentives for the US government to keep interest rates low and print money to inflate its way out of this crisis.

With growing unemployment and the social costs of high inflation, protectionism and international political instability will be on the rise.

In times of uncertainty, investors turn to gold as a hedge against unforeseen disasters since gold is one of the few investments that is not simultaneously an asset and someone else’s liability.

Emerging Asian middle class income growth

Growth of middle class incomes in emerging economies in Asia with a traditional strong appetite for gold will favor demand growth, independently of the above cited factors.

Indian middle classes have strong appetite for precious metals jewelry. India is already the largest worldwide consumer with annual demand of 650 tons. India, China and Turkey, for example, spend a much higher % of their GDP in gold than the US or Western Europe) and witness the reaction of the Vietnamese public to inflation, at least until a government ban became the largest worldwide importer of gold bullion.

Gold ETFs

The emergence of gold and precious metals ETFs such as GLD, CEF, and several others, and their growing availability to investors around the world is also likely to fuel demand. The first gold exchange-traded fund to trade in the United States, the StreetTracks Gold Shares (GLD), was launched in November 2004 and has been a success since. By the end of 2007 GLD reported holdings of 600 tonnes of physical gold bullion held in trust for its investors. If GLD was a central bank, it would nearly make the top 10 in the world for gold holdings. Gold ETFs provide the same economic benefits, although not entirely, of holding physical gold for ultimate insurance against extreme scenarios when the four horsemen of the apocalypse are unleashed and physical ownership is irreplaceable.

Gold supply

Supply is growth is likely to lag demand as central banks, which have been heavy until recently, are likely to curtail their sales of gold and will likely become net buyers (more on this below). Increased mining production and scrap recovery is unlikely to make up entirely for this.

Gold production has been rather flat for the last ten years (please see chart below) in spite of healthy price growth which indicated there is limited spare capacity. Brand new mine locations, especially the larger ones, can take 8-12 years for production to commence. Smaller mines can begin more quickly but if in the newly discovered category, they require eight years as a probable minimum. Open pit operation start-ups are faster, but not that much faster, and re-opening former operating mines requires the permitting process to start all over again, adding several new layers of paperwork not formerly encountered.

Chart courtesy of GFMS, Ltd.

Also, to some extent, the same problems as the oil industry arise with the gold industry. Gold mines are located in many regions where the political climate (see chart below) makes it difficult for private sector investment, particularly foreign investment, as the risks of nationalization are high. On the other hand, government owned companies often lack the skills and incentives to invest in exploration and adding capacity.

Central banks: from net sellers to net buyers.

We are presently witnessing a change of financial paradigm with the diminution of the dollar’s role as the single dominant global transaction and reserve currency, and the emergence of a multi-currency system, where gold as a percent of global reserves will increase.

Gold as a percent of monetary mass may also increase, but this does not necessarily mean a return to the gold standard. However, it may be the natural reaction to the excesses that are currently being committed by monetary authorities in the United States.

Central banks held relatively little foreign exchange [FX] reserves sixty years ago – the bulk of their reserves were in gold. FX reserves totaled $10.96 billion in 1949, gold reserves were just shy of 28,879 tons, and the gold reserve ratio was over 70%. Today it has declined to under 10%. This is decline is likely to reverse as emerging market economies diversify their reserves and increase their gold holdings. The IMF is a big seller as it uses up its reserves to make up for its operational deficit, reflecting the reduced need for its lending.

Below is a raking of central bank gold reserves:

Emerging markets have remarkably low ratios of gold reserves, particularly China. China’s foreign exchange reserves, the world’s largest, hit 1.53 trillion dollars at the end of 2007, around 70 percent of which is believed to be in U.S. currency-denominated assets, particularly U.S. Treasuries. Thirty years ago China held 95% of its foreign reserves in gold.

For example, the Qatar Central Bank quadrupled its gold holdings in the first quarter of 2007. It didn’t have much to begin with but now it has more – but not nearly as much as it had back in the 1980s according to World Gold Council statistics.

Russia announced a couple of years ago a long term goal of increasing its gold holdings to 10% of total reserves. India, Turkey and the Middle-East have also been important buyers.

Investors choosing to ignore these trends do so at grave peril to their wealth. As Churchill once said: “The time for procrastination and delays and excuses is over, we are into a period of consequences”.

Buy Gold and Silver Bullion

Interview with Nick Barisheff: Gold is Money

by: Pierre Daillie posted on: July 27, 2008

This week we interviewed Mr. Nick Barisheff, President & CEO, Bullion Management Group, and discussed with him the importance of gold bullion. Mr. Barisheff founded Bullion Management Group Inc. in 1997, and is the portfolio manager of BMG BullionFund, Canada’s only open-ended fund investing purely in gold, silver, and platinum bullion.

GreenLightAdvisor.com: What’s the most important thing people need to understand about gold?

Nick Barisheff: Many people think gold is a commodity like copper, zinc or pork bellies, but it has 3,000 years of history as money. It was money that no government created by edict. It was just adopted for usage by itself, and it was and still is the best form of money. Currently, we have a 37-year global experiment in paper money. All prior paper money experiments ended in hyperinflation, with the currencies becoming worthless. All previous hyperinflations were contained within a single country, but this time, because of the reserve status of the US dollar, it is likely to be global in nature.

Right now, the price of gold is rising while most currencies are losing purchasing power as well as their value against gold. Gold comes back into its monetary role when there’s a loss of confidence in the financial system or in paper money, and that’s when people are attracted to it.

Before 1971, the monetary system was governed by the Bretton Woods Agreement. Under that agreement, the US dollar was backed by gold, and other currencies were pegged to the dollar. Other countries could trade their US dollars for gold. Essentially, US gold indirectly backed all other currencies. Then things changed. As the US was getting into the Vietnam War and into President Johnson’s policy of guns and butter, US gold reserves started declining.

Countries holding dollars were presenting their US dollars and asking for gold in return, and that led to US gold reserves dropping from a peak of 22,000 tonnes to 8,800 tonnes. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon “closed the gold window” and stopped the exchange of US dollars for gold. Closing the gold window was a euphemism, but basically the US declared bankruptcy. When you can’t meet your obligations when they are due, that’s what it is. So from that point in time, we’ve had 37 years where the entire world has been on a global fiat currency monetary system.

Since 1971, when the dollar was freed from the constraints imposed on a currency backed by gold, the US has experienced increasing federal government and current account deficits. The US is now borrowing $800 billion annually to fund its consumption of foreign-made goods and commodities, and the federal government is running a deficit of almost $350 billion. At some point, foreigners will become unwilling to continue funding US expenditures, forcing the Federal Reserve to expand the money supply at a faster pace. This will result in rising inflation, rising interest rates and a continuous decline in the US dollar.

GLA: We’ve had the fastest money supply growth in almost 40 years that’s resulting in increased inflation. Why would an investor want to go into T-bills, given that interest rates don’t even cover half of the stated inflation rate, which we know isn’t even the real inflation rate?

NB: For the first time in history, we have an unlimited ability, by all central banks, to print, however much money we want, so to speak. Apart from the US M3 money supply growing at about 20%, we also have India and China growing theirs at about the same rate. China is at 18%, India is at 20%, and Russia is at 45%. As China or India sell goods to the US, they take in US dollars and they print yuan or rupees against those US dollars. Japan’s a little different; there, individuals and corporations can take their US dollars and buy US assets themselves. In China you have to turn your US dollars in to the central bank.

In today’s inflationary environment, many who invest in fixed income investment do not appreciate that instead of being “safe” investments, they are in fact guaranteed losses of purchasing power when you take inflation and taxation into account. We have done some analysis into a systematic withdrawal from our Fund for those investors requiring income. Based on the fact that precious metals have a long track record of staying ahead of inflation, an investor would be far better off in precious metals in terms of maintaining principal after inflation and having more after-tax cash flow to spend.

GLA: What did you think of John Embry’s (Sprott Asset Management) recent article about the manipulation of the price of gold? His assertion was that the central banks are deliberately keeping gold below $1,000 per ounce.

NB: John and Eric Sprott have recently written an extensive report called Not Free, Not Fair. The report brings forth a great deal of evidence that the precious metals markets may be manipulated. While it may seem like there’s a conspiracy to suppress the gold price, I think it’s simpler than that. It’s a well know fact that it is the job of central banks to manage their country’s currency, that’s part of their mandate. Central banks understand that gold is a currency, but one that they can’t expand as easily as paper money. I don’t think there is any lack of understanding on the part of central bankers that gold is an alternative currency.

GLA: Isn’t gold considered to be just a commodity with no real monetary role anymore?

NB: I’d like to refer to an article by Tony Fell , and it’s particularly interesting, given that he was chairman of RBC Capital Markets at the time of writing. He talks about how gold has three attributes: it’s a commodity, a store of value and a currency. He says so many people now think of gold only as a commodity or jewellery, or as an archaic relic, that there’s a feeling of “who needs it anymore?” People don’t think of it as money.

However, the daily sales volume gives a conclusive indicator that gold is much more than an industrial commodity. The physical turnover of gold by members of the UK’s London Bullion Marketing Association is about *$25 billion per day. We’re talking about net turnover between the LBMA members. The volume is estimated at 7-10 times that amount.

It’s pretty clear that these are currency transactions. That’s why gold, silver and platinum trade on the currency desks of all the banks and brokerages, not the commodity desks. What people need to know is that gold is a currency [like dollars or euros or yen]. Gold is not trading at these volumes as a commodity or as some archaic relic.

GLA: What are your thoughts on technical analysis, given that gold is a currency?

NB: Technical analysis works if you’re looking at widely distributed stocks like the S&P 500, for example, where there are many, many transactions that accurately reflect public sentiment. The price of gold, however, can be impacted by one country, or one very wealthy individual who wakes up one morning and decides to buy, and then you can throw the charts away. Or when a government decides to sell or a government intervenes. I’ve looked at technical analysis for gold in the past and tried to back-test with various techniques and found that they don’t work more often than they do. In the most recent case, there is no justification for the drop in gold price; it should have been rising because nothing has fundamentally changed. In fact, the fundamentals got worse and the gold price should have rallied. None of the problems went away; nothing was solved; the conditions are as bad as or worse than they were previously. So the drop in gold’s price has been a false decline.

GLA: So, it’s the value of paper currency that changes, not the value of gold [so to speak]?

NB: One of the attributes of gold as money is that you can’t simply create it at will, like paper money. It’s no one else’s promise of performance and it’s not someone else’s liability. It’s not going to zero, no matter what. And, whether we’re moving the measuring stick of inflation or deflation really doesn’t matter, because the way gold should be measured is in terms of purchasing power. It doesn’t matter if gold is priced at $1,000 in paper money per ounce or $2 in paper money per ounce, it will retain its purchasing power in either circumstance.

The first important step in the big picture of understanding gold is that it is a store of wealth with a 3,000 year history, and it’s money. Over the long term, it retains its purchasing power. That’s why they say that an ounce of gold will always buy a man’s suit.

Apart from that, the US dollar is down 85% in purchasing power since 1971. In 1971 you could buy a car with 100 ounces of gold; a car was about $3,500 and gold was $35 an ounce. With 1,000 ounces, or about $35,000, you could buy a house. Today, you could buy several cars or a luxury car with 100 ounces, and a mansion with 1,000 ounces. You could also buy more units of the Dow Jones Industrial Average with your ounce today than you could in 1971. So that ounce has preserved its purchasing power while currencies have lost over 80% of their value.

GLA: Apparently, in the last 40 or 50 years, there’s only been three years that there was net selling by gold investors, three years out of almost half a century. Is this true?

NB: People who hold bullion tend to hold it for a long time, as the core of their entire wealth. It’s not sold once you understand its basic characteristics, because you have to have a reason to sell it, you have to use it to buy something better. I tend to look at investment performance as to whether I end up with more gold ounces or less gold ounces rather than percentage returns; you get a different conclusion then. For example, if you had invested 44 ounces in the Dow in 2000, you would now get back only 14 ounces.

This current cycle is not a conventional bull market in precious metals; I think we’re in the midst of a change in the global monetary system. This is not going to be like a typical commodity cycle where we go up for four years and down for four years; I think we’re witnessing a transition into another monetary system, whatever form that may take. At the end of this period the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency.

GLA: What happens if the US dollar ceases to be the standard?

NB: What happened when the British pound ceased to be the standard? It just ceased to be the standard. Its decline in value is still ongoing. It’s happened to every empire throughout history: the British, the Roman, the Greek, the Spanish, the Persian, and the Chinese. Every single empire ended up debasing their currency in order to maintain the empire.

GLA: Is gold likely to increase further going forward or has it topped and investors have missed out?

Currently, we have a lot of noise in terms of the credit contraction, real estate bubble, record high debt at all levels, dangerous derivatives vulnerabilities and unsustainable US current account and trade deficits. These could still blow up into bigger problems at any time. However let’s hope they get resolved or at the very least postponed somehow.

But there are two factors that are not changeable in all of this.

First: The US has to print money on an accelerating basis. Has to – because of the underfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations – which at present are about $60 trillion. If you took all of the net earnings of US individuals and companies it would not be enough to pay that off. You can’t tax people enough and politically you cannot tell everybody, “Sorry, we can’t give you your Social Security – we don’t have the money. And no Medicare either.” So they have to keep printing money.

Second: The issue of Peak Oil – it used to be a debate as to when the production of oil would peak. Now it looks like that has already happened, in March 2006. As a result we have a situation where oil production is declining while demand is increasing, particularly from India and China. This will result in ever-increasing oil prices, and also increasing prices for almost every product and service.

As these two forces – increased money printing and peak oil – interact, the result is a declining dollar alongside constantly increasing oil prices. This leads to even greater oil price increases in an effort to offset the dollar decline. These two highly inflationary factors are working in tandem, and they can’t be changed.

Therefore, as oil rises and the dollar declines, commodities – and particularly precious metals – will continue to rise.

GLA: What’s the relationship between oil and gold?

NB: There’s not necessarily a great deal of correlation between the two in the short term. However, in the longer term, the correlation has been in the order of about 16 barrels of oil for every ounce of gold.

GLA: Has that been consistent long term and what is the outlook for precious metals?

NB: With only short-term fluctuations, this ratio has held up over the long term. At this point the price of gold is undervalued compared to the price of oil. Gold should be closer to $1,500 an ounce if you use this measure.

On top of this kind of inflationary issue eroding financial confidence, we’re at peak production in gold. When the price of gold was low, miners employed high-grading to get the most easily attainable gold out of the ground. As the price rises, miners resort to lower-grade mining, which has become worthwhile – but in some cases you have to sift through tonnes of ore for each ounce.

Platinum, for instance; it takes six months to get an ounce of platinum out of roughly 10,000 tonnes of ore. Right now, almost all the platinum produced originates in South Africa, and the mines are miles underground, and electricity intensive. Power shortages in South Africa are interfering with production and slowing things down. All these forces are coming together, slowing production and driving up prices.

With silver, most of the aboveground reserves have been depleted – most of the silver that is produced is consumed each and every year. Silver also has two demand drivers – monetary and industrial. The number of industrial applications are growing every year while the monetary demand has also been growing in the past few years. It is important to remember that “silver” means “money” in several languages.

GLA: Why is gold so important as an element of diversification for investors?

NB: Take a look at the cycle from 1968 to 1982 – during that time it took stocks the whole 14 years to break even. If you factor inflation into it, it actually took until 1995. So stocks didn’t look so good in the past cycle, and they are not looking very good now. The DJIA is well below its inflation-adjusted highs. Its performance is much worse when measured in gold ounces. The DJIA has declined from a high of 44 ounces of gold in 2000 to about 14 today, but if you look at a chart the Dow appears to be at new highs. It’s like taking the Zimbabwe stock market and saying, “Look how well Zimbabwean stocks have done; the market was up 8,000%.” But what if we adjust for the 100,000% inflation in that country? Not so good, is it?

BMG BullionFund is internally diversified. We buy physical gold, platinum, and silver in equal amounts. While some people like to focus on gold, they would miss out on the fact that silver and platinum have both outperformed gold since the beginning of this cycle in 2002.

GLA: What do you do about inflation?

NB: First, it is important to look at real inflation. What is real inflation? The real number is around 9%, not 3%. The calculations the government uses for the Consumer Price Index [CPI] are really meaningless as a true inflation indicator. The real definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply that leads to an increase in prices. Prices do not increase on their own unless you have a shortage; when you increase the money supply, what you’re really doing is debasing the currency, and as the purchasing power of the currency declines prices appear to be rising. So with the US money supply (M3) growing at 20%, Canada’s growing at 9%, and most other countries’ growing at around 15%, that’s going to result in rising prices and real inflation.

If you take real inflation into account, Wainwright Economics suggests that the appropriate bullion allocation for a bond investor’s portfolio is 18%, and for the equity investor’s portfolio 40%, and that’s just to break even with inflation. Although this may sound incredible, think of the 1970s. How much bullion was required just to break even in an equity portfolio? Bullion went up 2,300%, while equities were flat on a nominal basis. Inflation was 15%.

So without even getting wrapped up in a discussion about the complex subject of money, those two points are fairly straightforward. Ibbotson Associates confirmed that precious metals are the most negatively correlated asset class to the traditional financial assets, so it gives the biggest bang for the buck for the least amount of allocation. In the process you also achieve a more balanced, diversified portfolio. Advisors would do well to have an allocation to precious metals to protect their clients from under-diversification.

GLA: Do you think this pullback in gold is an opportunity to add to positions at this time?

NB: Yes as long as there hasn’t been a major change in the fundamentals that drive the price. When these pullbacks occur, you always get some technical interpretations, whether it’s conventional technical analysis or Elliot Wave, coming out with the idea that the bull market in precious metals is over and that it’s now going down forever and so on.

When these things happen, you have to ask if anything changed fundamentally to justify that decline. If nothing changed fundamentally, the only conclusion you can draw is that something’s wrong in the technical interpretations. In all likelihood the technical interpretation is wrong because there’s been an intervention by monetary authorities. Technical analysis only works when the markets are working freely.

GLA: Well, whatever it is they’re trying to do to knock the price down, once again, he who wins in the end is he who has the most ounces and the most shares. It’s got to have been a good year for you with gold prices up 10%, silver up close to 19% and platinum prices over 30%.

NB: Yes, it has. We have grown assets year-over-year by 80% this year alone, so it’s been a substantial increase, and performance-wise, we’re about 20% year-to-date.

GLA: Thank you very much for sharing your knowledge with us.

*All amounts expressed in US dollars, unless otherwise noted.

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One thing that the world has forgotten for the most part, is that gold is money. It has been parroted around for three generations as a commodity only, with little industrial use or demand, and no value as a currency.

Humans have this interesting tendency to forget history, even though through all of time it consistently repeats itself.

The cycle I am speaking of is the one where societies and economies cycle back and forth between paper fiat money backed by nothing but a governments promise that it has value, and currency that is backed by gold and silver.

This is not new, and in my opinion will happen again, as it always has, for thousands of years.

For a while now I have been going on about how the Chinese, OPEC, and other nations that have trillions of USD in their reserves are not going to simply sit on it and watch it devalue by 16%-20% a year because of a rampant monetary inflation policy of the Federal Reserve.

“Dollar crisis looms, says Nobel laureate Mundell
Reuters June 3, 2008 at 8:36 AM EDT

VALENCIA, Spain — A major dollar crisis could come within five years and China is discussing reforms to the global monetary system to protect its $1.6-trillion (U.S.) reserves pile, says Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Mundell.

Mr. Mundell, who has regular contacts with Beijing officials, said they are considering proposing ways to fix major currencies including the dollar and the euro, in a system similar to the one which operated under the Bretton Woods agreement from the end of World War Two until the 1970s.”

If you were China and seeing this happen to your National Treasury, would you sit there and do nothing or look for a solution?

The answer is obvious.

“China is worried about its pile of about $1.6-trillion in foreign reserves, built up during years of U.S. trade deficits, which loses value as the greenback depreciates. “

The excerpts from the above Reuters article shows that China seems to be interested in a gold backed system. If this were to occur, we need to take a serious look at what it means for the price and demand of gold.

I will give you one simple equation, which you can then apply to any nation, or the economy at large. If the USA were to go to a gold backed standard, that means each dollar in circulation would then have to be redeemable in gold. The current measure of USD in circulation based on private firm analysis is above $14 Trillion USD. The US Treasury claims it has 261,498,899.316 ounces of gold according to its website http://www.fms.treas.gov/GOLD/current.html . If we were to divide the number of USD in circulation by the amount of gold claimed to be on hand in the US Treasury, it would make the price of gold $53,537.00 per ounce.

You can perform this calculation on any nations currency, if you know the amount of currency in circulation and the country’s claimed national reserves in gold.

The bottom line is, if the world heads to any form of gold backed currency system, or any world government chooses to make its own currency backed in gold, then two things would happen:

1. That country will be the best runner up for the next world reserve currency

2. The valuation on gold will skyrocket beyond the angels

“Without reform, the global monetary system is headed for a dollar crisis within years, Mr. Mundell believes. “

I sure hope you own some gold before that happens.

Buy Gold and Silver Bullion

Gold is Money. Its been said before, notably by the late JP Morgan. Yet today we find ourselves forgetting that gold is money.

Jim Sinclair has made some very accurate calls in his time, and is one of the most recognized experts in gold today. A recent message from Mr. Sinclair, I have bolded where he says gold is money:

As far as I am concerned:

1. I do not anticipate a one month or more drop in gold. Neither does Monty Guild, so be careful not to read his general commodity comment ass-backwards.
2. The worst case scenario is a chop after the low of April 28th set in, and the rally high in the low $950s. Following this the chop gives way to a break above $1034 on its way to $1200 in 2008. Write that down for the dark night of your gold soul.
3. Gold is a currency, not a commodity.
4. Gold while remaining as a currency is now more tied to the euro than the USDX.
5. Weakness in crude, if you can call any price above $100 a barrel weak, helped gold be prone to lower prices.
6. Gold?s real help moving lower was a push by COT that triggered the mindless black boxes which are as nuts on the upside as they are on the downside.
7. If tonight you curse gold, keep this in mind when it crosses$1034, and please leave never to return.
8. Hold my hand when you feel low as gold takes a beating, and when you feel high as a kite when higher highs happen. I will moderate both for you.
9. The greatest technical analysis trick is simple to learn. Whatever your emotions say to you is totally wrong. Whenever you want to margin to the rafters it is time to eliminate debt.

Regards,
Jim

Modern economic alchemy has labeled gold nothing more than a commodity, a bygone relic, with no industrial or commercial use in todays world of paper and electronic markets.

But what happens when those who are in charge of those paper and electronic systems abuse it? What happens when people lose confidence in it? What happens when the paper becomes ever more worthless in the eyes of the world?

Quite simply, a return to gold is money. It has been money for over 5000 years. Human beings have this interesting tendancy to forget history, and what we have learned from societies past.

Economies, and nations, both regional and global have gone back and forth from ‘easy money’ to ‘disciplined money’ in a recurring pattern that so far has shown no reason of stopping.

Governments of course favor easy money, because they can print as much as they like, and spend as much as they like, with no sensible restraints on wars, emergency relief, subsidies on foolish programs, and social welfare that dwarfs the entire global gdp combined.

The bad part of course, is this propensity to print and create tens of trillions of dollars out of thin air is called inflation, and it is spreading around the globe like a cancer. Food riots, oil heading to $200 a barrel, $5.00 a gallon gas, and the sad part is, this is just the beginning.

There are, however, solutions. Investigate gold and silver. Learn why gold is money. Most importantly, learn why the cycle is again shifting back to gold is money, and what it means in terms of how high gold will truly go.

Do your research, because for the ones who bury their heads in the sand and fail to see it coming, there will be terrible losses as stock markets come down from baby boomers sucking their money out as they retire in hordes.

Some however, will be gathering wealth because they were smart enough to learn from history.

To Learn more about gold and silver and how it can impact your wealth, or for information on how to open an Anglo Far East Gold or Silver Bullion Account, Click here.

Alex’s Notes: I happen to concur with the authors thought in this article. Much of the worlds international settlement systems have grown up for half a century around the dollar as the reserve currency, so it is unlikely this will change overnight.

There are, however, a few things that could accelerate the process. A run on the dollar by any country or group of nations that is a major holder of dollars as a part of their reserve base, Sovereign Wealth funds becoming even more aggressive than they are now in securing hard assets versus paper cash holdings, or OPEC/China deciding to divest its dollar holdings into something else, such as Euro or gold.

Another scenario that could rapidly accelerate the dollars demise includes the continued bail-outs of financial institutions by the Fed. If we are so simple as to believe the Wall Street talking heads that we are in the clear, we are being as silly as they are. The fact is less than half of the asset losses from the sub-prime fiasco of 2007 have been reported, and through 2011 we are going to see another mortgage related scenario unfold in the form of Alt-A and ARM resets that will make the sub-prime mess look like romper room in comparison. This would have a domino effect, in that as the Fed bails more failing institutions out, it will multiply not only US, but Global inflation.

Such a series of events would continue to devalue the dollar, and give ever more impetus to nations sitting on vast dollar reserves to get rid of their dollars while those dollars are still worth something. This means that those dollars will start coming home. The effect of that would be increased prices in the US for everything from food to gas to electricity (if you think it is bad now, you aint seen nothing yet!). The other effect of that would be accelerating the value the dollar, further spurring dollar holding nations to dump them.

Finally, any country that chooses to stand on its own and link its currency to a hard asset such as gold or silver would be a currency that is in high demand virtually overnight. Why stack billions in paper that is redeemable for nothing, when you can instead stack billions in paper that you can exchange for gold and silver? Our world’s governments are not stupid, and that’s exactly the way it would go.

The net effect of that would be of course changing gold and silver from commodity status back to monetary status. This isn’t a new idea, humans have used gold and silver linked to currency or as currency for thousands of years, because it is un-inflatable (if it remains pure), and forces governments to remain disciplined in their fiscal policies. It is only in the last 40 years that we have strayed from this wisdom, and we are witnessing its effects as I write this.

Societies throughout history have oscillated back and forth between currencies redeemable in things of intrinsic value, and paper that is redeemable for nothing for hundreds and thousands of years. As inflation continues to grow, inciting food riots and civil unrest around the world, the idea of having currencies that prevent the governments of the world from inflating the world’s currencies becomes ever more enticing.

This is not as far fetched as it might sound. I certainly consider it curious that China has invested so heavily into mining, mineral rights, and acquisition of operating gold and silver companies over the last ten plus years. They have made attempts at buying mega-mining companies such as Rio Tinto through proxies, they have been running all over Africa for years buying up mineral rights, they have become the worlds largest producer of gold, and China is among the top silver producers in the world. Metals are of course important to an emerging nations economy like China’s, yet gold can barely be considered an industrial metal, so why are they investing so heavily in it?

One of the primary reasons that the US Dollar became the world’s reserve currency in the first place is because it was redeemable in gold.

The Chinese are not stupid people, so as with all things we must apply ‘Cui Bono’, or ‘Who Benefits’, and ask ourselves, why are they doing this? The United States has enjoyed a unique ability to run massive trade deficits for half a century and borrow money from the entire world at low interest due to its currency status. The Chinese are hungry to move into a western style standard of living, so is it so far fetched that they would like to enjoy the same benefits?

Could the Yuan become the next reserve currency of the world? More importantly to those who understand how small the gold and silver markets are, is what effect would that have on the prices of gold and silver?

The results could be explosive to say the least.

—————————————————-

Dollar Reserve Status Is Tale of Fading Glory: Michael R. Sesit
Commentary by Michael R. Sesit
May 2 (Bloomberg) — Reserve currency status is like your health: Abuse it, and you risk losing it.

With the dollar’s 45 percent decline against the euro during the past six years and its 37 percent drop on a trade-weighted basis, there is a growing concern that the greenback’s six-decade reign as the world’s most important currency may be ending.

It’s not. The dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and absent some unexpected exogenous shock, will probably remain so for some time.

Nonetheless, the dollar’s premier status is under threat, especially as a store of wealth, by both foreign governments and private investors. Also, companies are using it less as a currency in which to invoice and settle international trade transactions.

Why care? Reserve currency status allows the U.S. government to borrow in its own currency, lets the U.S. run large trade deficits, and helps the government and American companies to fund themselves at low interest rates. It makes it easier for U.S. companies to do business and increases the international demand for U.S. assets.

Moreover, as the specie of choice, the dollar is blessed with seigniorage, the interest-free loan America receives from the hundreds of billions of dollars held overseas and hoarded as misfortune insurance.

Although the composition of official central-bank foreign- exchange holdings receives the lion’s share of attention when people talk about reserves, it is the private sector’s trade in goods and services that plays a dominant role in determining a currency’s international status.

Cash Reserves

Official reserves equal 33 percent of global imports, according to UBS AG. If a company in country A trades with a company in country B and the transaction is invoiced and settled in the currency of country C, that third currency will have reserve status. That’s because both companies are likely to keep cash balances in that currency.

“The dollar is the most important reserve currency in the world, but it is no longer the only reserve currency, nor even the overwhelmingly dominant choice as a reserve currency,” says Paul Donovan, a London-based economist at UBS.

When the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971, almost all Japanese exports were priced in dollars. Now less than half are. About 40 percent of Japan’s total exports are invoiced in yen, up from 34 percent in 2001.

Raw Materials

Seventy percent of Australia’s exports are denominated in U.S. dollars, reflecting the dominance of raw materials in their makeup. Apart from commodities, the dollar plays a smaller role. For instance, 59 percent of beverage shipments to other countries are denominated in Australian dollars, 19 percent in pounds and 16 percent in U.S. currency.

Data on country invoicing patterns are hard to come by. Still, the decline in dollars held outside the U.S. from 1.83 percent of world trade in 2002 to 1.22 percent in 2006 reflects the U.S. currency’s shrinking role as a medium of exchange.

Anecdotal evidence also suggests a trend. In November, India’s Taj Mahal said it would no longer accept dollars and take only rupees. International drug dealers are said to prefer euros to dollars.

Ditto, Copenhagen-based A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, whose container-shipping line, the world’s biggest, on April 1 began invoicing in euros for transporting containers from Europe and North Africa to Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific. The shipping industry historically billed in dollars.

$4.9 Trillion

On the official side, developing countries have been steadily inching away from the dollar. Their foreign-exchange reserves surged to $4.9 trillion in 2007 from $1.2 trillion in 2000. Emerging-market countries accounted for 76 percent of total global reserves in 2007, up from 56 percent in 1997, according to the International Monetary Fund. Yet during that period, their dollar holdings shrank to 61 percent from 73 percent.

The euro has been the beneficiary, rising to 28 percent of developing-country reserves in the fourth quarter from 19 percent when the decade began.

Behind this dollar downgrade lies the U.S.’s rising debtor profile, an unpopular war in Iraq, the growing threat of trade protectionism, apprehension over the greenback’s decline and the subprime crisis.

“These factors have all conspired to weaken investor confidence in the buck and undermine the dollar’s position as the world’s top currency,” says Joseph Quinlan, New York-based chief market strategist at Bank of America Capital Management.

Asian and oil-exporting central banks also hold more dollars than they prudently need and are seeking to diversify their portfolios away from their traditional preference for highly liquid, relatively low-yielding Treasuries.

No Allegiance Owed

Many countries — including China, Russia, Kuwait, Singapore and Norway — are transferring tens of billions of dollars to sovereign wealth funds. Long-term investors with mandates to maximize returns, these entities owe no allegiance to the U.S. currency and over time their investments will probably result in their governments’ holding fewer dollars.

The durability of the dollar’s reserve-currency status owes more to the absence of a challenger than sound U.S. policies. The euro is hobbled by the lack of a single, pan-European capital market and its being a hybrid currency used by a mix of countries yet owned by none.

China’s yuan is a potential contender, but not until that currency becomes fully convertible, the nation’s financial markets more developed and internationally recognized laws more established — which is years away. Japan, meanwhile, has always resisted the yen being a reserve currency.

It isn’t ordained that the dollar surrender its position as the world’s go-to currency. Yet if Americans insist on living beyond their means, eschew sound fiscal policies, ignore the greenback’s weakness and remain tempted by protectionism, the dollar will in small bites begin to mimic the British pound — the currency of a once proud but spent imperial power.

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By Bill Bonner
April 21st, 2008

Capitalism is a panacea, after all. It cures symptoms of affluence as well as poverty.

We file this report from Manchester… where, according to legend, the industrial revolution began. Modern tools, steady money, and fossil fuel were put together, creating so much gas, it lifted mankind out of the mud of the Middle Ages and carried him aloft. Thrifty Scottish economists – notably Adam Smith and Adam Ferguson – saw what was happening and took note of the moral lesson: by foregoing the satisfaction of current consumption, savings could be invested in factories, machines, and new discoveries that increased the output from human labor.

In the same amount of time, thanks to his new tools, a workingman could produce more things. And, soon, the things made him rich. According to MeasuringWealth.com, during the second half of the 18th century, the typical British workingman earned about 60 pounds per year. It took only 4.25 pounds sterling to buy an ounce of gold, so he earned the equivalent of 14 ounces of gold, which is worth about 6,622 pounds sterling at today’s rates. A century later, in 1971, to be exact, his earnings had risen to the equivalent of 49 ounces of gold per year – or about 23,000 pounds sterling at today’s rate.

(Readers who are good at math will already be asking questions. The average wage in Britain today is only 23,177. In terms of gold, wages have gone nowhere for the last 37 years.)

But whatever wonder James Watt and the people of Britain’s industrial heartland wrought, their descendants in America have worked another one; in the midst of the greatest financial and technological boom ever, they have managed to actually reduce the value of their own labor.

Yes, dear reader, this week we turn our weary eyes away from the poor, the weak, and the huddled masses struggling to keep up with the price of rice… and focus on people who are struggling to keep up with their credit card payments. Here is a group of people upon whom nature piled so many blessings, she crushed the wit out of them. And, their wealth is being squeezed out too.

The United States of America has rich farmland, from sea to shining sea. Still, it is a net importer of food. In fact, it is a net importer of practically everything that can be moved. Every day that goes by it receives about $2 billion more of these moveable objects than it sends out in exports.

Prior to the Nixon administration, such an imbalance could not persist for very long; but however much God blessed America – with her purple mountains majesty and her fields of golden grain – was nothing compared to the way she was favored by the post-1971 monetary system.

“As ye plant, so shall ye reap,” it saith in the Bible. But in the period from 1997-2007, Americans could reap without planting. They could consume without earning. They could invest without saving, and spend as much as they wanted without running out of money. They were the world’s luckiest people – they had the world’s reserve currency… and access to the whole world’s credit.

The miracle that fundamentally altered the world monetary system happened on August 15, 1971, when Richard Nixon “closed the gold window,” at the U.S. Treasury. Before then, every nation’s currency was anchored to gold. Governments settled their imbalances in yellow metal; since each unit of paper currency represented an option on the treasury’s gold, it forced officials to be wary of issuing too many. But after August, 1971, the world’s monetary system upped anchor and sailed with the tide. Now, it all floats on a sea of paper money – and no one knows what’s beneath the dark ocean surface.

The Chinese merchant who sold widgets and geegaws to spendthrift Americans could not use dollars to pay his wages. He needed local currency. So he traded his dollars for yuan. And where did the Central Bank of China get enough yuan to buy up trillions of dollars? It had to create them. All over the planet, as the world’s stock of dollars rose… so did its inventories of local currencies. And then, what could it do with its dollars? Before 1971, it would have presented them to the U.S. Treasury and received one ounce of gold for every 41 paper dollars. In order to protect the nation’s gold, central bankers would have taken away the punch bowl and turned out the lights. Rates would have gone up; foreigners would have been encouraged to hold dollars (rather than exchange them for gold); Americans would have been discouraged from spending dollars – effectively stifling U.S. consumer spending and bringing the current account back into balance.

Then, in 2001, the U.S. financial authorities, led by Alan Greenspan, thought they faced a crisis. They panicked – giving Americans even more credit rope. With nothing to stop it, the supply of cash and credit rose at an even faster rate. And thus it was that Americans wrapped their good fortune around their necks like a noose. Instead of practicing the virtues that had made them rich – saving money, building new factories and learning new skills – they borrowed even more heavily than before.

And now their houses are being foreclosed and their bills are coming due. Worse, the value of their most important asset – their time – is being marked down with the dollar. According to our source, the typical American workingman in the late 19th century was already earning considerably more than an Englishman – 25 ounces of gold per year, rather than 14. He, too, became much richer as the industrial revolution progressed. By 1971, he was earning the equivalent of 82 ounces of gold, worth $76,000 today. But then he forgot his lessons. He stopped saving… his income fell… and his dollar dropped. Adjusting the average hourly wage for consumer price inflation, he earns slightly less today than he did during the Carter administration. Adjusting his wages to the fall of the euro, we find the average American earns less than the average Frenchman. And adjusting his wages to gold and we see he has lost a half century of wage progress. Today, he earns only the equivalent of 40 ounces of gold – or only about $38,000.

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning Australia

The following is an excerpt from an article written by Clyde C. Harrison of Brookshire Raw Materials. The reason I am sending this out, is because I have been yammering on about these trends for a while now, and Mr. Harrison has done an incredible job of stating more simply and eloquently what I have been blathering on about, but not quite so eloquently.

Summary of this of course is: The future is commodities, energy, and GOLD and SILVER. I just saw a Youtube of Ron Paul on CNBC saying we should abolish the Fed and shift back to a gold standard. I am not sure how realistic abolishing the Fed really is, although I do kind of like the idea. Shifting to a gold standard, well now we are talking. Do you realize that if you take the current M3 money supply, and divide it into the number of reported gold ounces the US Treasury owns, that it would make the price of gold $51,470 per ounce?

The worlds economies and societies have shifted back and forth from Fiat money to real money (gold and silver) in a cycle that repeats itself through history over and over, with no exceptions. The world is currently realizing (again), that Fiat isn’t all that wonderful. Whichever government shifts to a gold standard first, will end up with the worlds next reserve currency. Totally my opinion.

Here is an excerpt, my own emphasis added in bolds.

—————————————————————-

The Financial Center of Gravity is Shifting

Don’t just look at the stars – be one

Clyde Harrison

Mar 24, 2008

Excerpt:

As the US moved from capitalism to socialism, many third world countries were moving toward capitalism.

Today, 1 billion people in the world, G-7, use two thirds of the world’s raw materials. Over 5 billion use the other third. Many are pursuing capitalism; China, India, Russia, Brazil and Vietnam. In China, to be rich is glorious. In the US, if you’re rich, you’re attacked. In China there is no capital gains tax and no corporate tax. Money and talent go where it’s treated well.

Today, it’s easier and cheaper to start and operate a business in China than in the land of the free, where we are free to pay tremendous federal, state and local taxes, free except for the mountains of regulations; like who you employ, how you pay them, how you operate your business all the way to what you do in your own home with your own children. Regulations are destroying jobs and creativity.

Is it any wonder that China is growing at 12% and America at 2%?

In my opinion, the raw material market, energy, agricultural and base metals are only in the second inning of a nine inning bull market.

30 years of restrained and neglected natural resource supply is being overwhelmed by demand. The lead times to create more supply are measured in years. Three billion people in emerging nations have discovered capitalism.

Capitalism is easy to understand, it’s nature with a balance sheet.

The difference is in nature. If you fail, you are eaten. Under capitalism you go broke. I like capitalism better.

Today, China is booming. They have declared the national bird to be the construction crane. In the last five years China went from exporting oil to the second largest importer in the world. The emerging market countries will go from walking, to bikes, to motorcycles, and to autos. They will need oil and gas, chemicals, forest products and metals. At $1.00 per hour they are deflating manufacturing costs, but as they become more successful, they will throw away their bicycles and buy motorcycles and eat better, increasing the demand for raw materials.

China and India are transforming their economies from poor agrarian nations to the newest industrial powers, replete with heavy industries, mass transportation and higher education. Rising from these giant new economies will come millions of new consumers, the very people who are already straining the natural resources of the earth.

In 1900, the US started to industrialize. We were using one barrel of oil per person per year. By 1970, we were using 27 barrels per person. In 1950, Japan started to industrialize, they were using 1 barrel per person. By 1970, they were using 17. In 1965, South Korea started to industrialize. They were using one barrel per person per year. By 2000 they were using 17. Today, China uses 1.3 barrel per person per year and India uses .7.

In 1950, Japan per capita income was 18% of the US, today it’s 96%. In 1965, South Korea’s per capita income was 16% of the US, today it’s 56%. India and China have 2.5 billion consumers, 9 times the US. The US uses 25% of the world’s energy, China and India use 8%. India and China have 280 people per car. The US has 2 people per car. Last year, China produced and sold the same number of autos as the US. Eighty percent were purchased with cash.

Real incomes are just beginning to rise to levels that create large demands for consumer goods. Between 1950 and 1970, Japan’s urban population increased 70%. Personal consumption increased 600%.

What is occurring today in China, which contains just over 1/3 of the citizens of the emerging nations: China currently is 40% urban, 60% rural. The US is 97% urban and 3% rural. China has 20% of the world’s population and 7% of the world’s land. China’s grain imports will grow from 14 million tones today to 57 million tones in 2020.

China was the largest economy during 27 of the past 30 centuries. China currently consumes 47% iron ore, 32% aluminum and 25% of the copper. China currently consumes 6 million barrels of oil per day. The US consumes 25 million barrels per day. China has almost five times the population of the US and will some day consume more oil than the US.

To date most of China’s growth has been on the east coast. 800 million Chinese live in rural China today and 40 million a year are moving to the city for the better life.

China wants to halt this migration by bringing the better life to the whole country. To accelerate this, they have a number of infrastructure construction projects in effect. All the projects are scheduled to be completed in 5 years.

$200 billion dollars for 500 power plants. They are currently completing 4 power plants per day.

$200 billion dollars for railroads to the west.

$30 billion for a 300 mph bullet trail between Shanghai and Beijing.

$65 billion for 97 new air ports.

$40 billion for subways in 15 major cities.

$300 billion for 10,000 miles of new expressways.

The $900 billion in construction in China will be paid for by US taxpayers, not out of their kindness to strangers, but in interest on the money we have borrowed from China. Now add Egypt, Russia, Brazil, Vietnam and you begin to understand why I started a raw materials fund.

The mergers of the giant producers today do not create one more ounce of supply. It won’t be long and they will be merging the junior mining companies. Years into this bull market, and still the cheapest place to drill for oil and mine metals is the stock exchange.

Today, 1 billion people consume two thirds of the world’s raw materials. 5.6 billion people consume the other third and they are becoming more successful. The industrial revolution involved 300 million people. The emerging nation revolution involves 3 billion.

There is no need to connect the dots, they over lap.

Lead times to create raw materials are measured in years. In Canada $80 billion in infrastructure has been committed to production of the tar sands. The goal is to produce 3 million barrels a day by 2015. At $85, oil is a bargain liquid. It costs 10% less than bottled water, it’s one third the cost of milk, one fifth the cost of beer and only 2% of the cost of Jack Daniels. TaTa, the Indian car company has produced a $2,500 automobile. Hundreds of thousands will be sold in the 3rd world. That demand will increase the price of a gallon of gas one dollar in the next three years because of increased demand.

Phelps Dodge is opening a new copper mine. It took 12 years of paper work to receive federal approval.

In China:

Company: “We found copper.”

Government: “Start digging. What can we do to help?”

Company: “We need a road.”

Government: “You got it.”

China’s growing at 12%, the US at 2%. Money goes where it’s treated well.

Currently oil companies who search for oil at great risk earn 9 cents per gallon. The US Government, at no risk, takes 51 cents per gallon.

The political systems of G-7 are at a great disadvantage, stuck with unfunded liabilities and debt. Current politicians are unwilling to cut spending growth. The Chinese have a 30 percent savings rate and 1.4 trillion US dollars to purchase real assets.

Demand for raw materials has increased. In many cases, the capacity to produce raw materials has declined dramatically in the last 20 years. Tops and bottoms are creatures of extreme. Markets rise above all expectation and then go higher and then fall further than common sense suggests. The most desirable investments for the future might not be in cyber space but back to the basics.

I believe we are only at the start of the largest bull market in history for raw materials.

By the end of this bull market, there will be a bounty on caribou, you will be able to see an oil rig from every beach and they will be digging a coal mine in Al Gore’s yard.

As you climb the ladder of financial success, check to make sure it’s leaning on the right wall. I believe raw materials will be one of the best investments for the next 10 to 15 years.

Clyde C. Harrison
Brookshire Raw Materials

Buy Gold and Silver Bullion

Chart of the Day – GOLD

Gold has been in a strong bull market since 2001 and picked up the pace in mid-2005 and then again in mid-2007. In fact, gold has gone parabolic and today briefly crossed the $1000 per ounce level for the first time. Today’s chart illustrates how the price of gold has nearly quadrupled during its seven year bull market.

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While there are a number of plausible reasons for gold stocks lagging of late, we have come to the conclusion that the true explanation reaches much farther into the past. It’s that the managements of the gold producers have only recently escaped the state of fear they operated under during gold’s 20-year bear market.

Consider: as recently as the year 2002, gold was still trading near $280. Against that number was a cash cost of around $250 per ounce for a typical company. That cost figure is about as low as the number could go, and it was the response of an industry beaten down and huddling in a trench.

Caution lingers after the reason for it has gone. As gold began its upward move in 2002, it did so against the backdrop of an industry still in mothballs and still run by managers whose primary skills were cost cutting and frugality. This is important on a number of fronts.

1) Having been trained in the acid bath of razor-thin margins, management was intensely skeptical about gold’s rally. They suspected it might be just another bear market trap, ready to punish unwary optimists who parted with cash to ramp up production.

2) In the hunkered-down years, miners focused on the higher-grade, easy-to-mine material that gave them the best shot at turning a profit, however small that might be. And being in survival mode, they were extremely cautious about buying new equipment or maintaining a large workforce. Employee rosters were reduced to the bare minimum.

3) Because staying in business was such an urgent goal, they were willing, even eager, to sell future production at a set price — a perfectly rational strategy in a bear market, because it at least assured they would receive a price that covered the known costs.

With all these factors taken together, it’s easy to understand why the industry was slow to respond when gold started rising. In fact, it was only in February 2003, with gold trending over $350, that Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest gold miner, began the expensive process of unwinding its hedges. And it wasn’t until November of that year that the company announced it would stop forward selling altogether and would eliminate its entire hedge book.

Once the turning point came – when management finally realized the bull market was for real — the industry began to scramble to catch up. Which, in a choo-choo industry like mining, means hiring and training lots of people, buying or refurbishing the equipment needed to reestablish production on second-tier deposits, upgrading facilities, building expensive new mills, etc., etc. And, of course, dealing with the challenge and expense of unwinding hundreds of millions of dollars worth of forward hedge contracts.

The rebuilding of the gold mining industry, in short, really only began in earnest over the past few years.

As would be expected, the costs associated with rebuilding the industry sent big hits to the bottom line, resulting in the kind of ugly financial metrics that repel institutional investors.

The metrics were not at all helped by the shift away from high-grade ore, because the lower the grade, the more the material you have to dig, hoist, haul and process, meaning increased production costs. In addition, the industry rebuild occurred against a backdrop of generally rising inflation and a falling dollar, which helped push the cash cost of production up by more than double from the mothball years, keeping the miners unattractive as investments.

By contrast, the base metals companies, which had hit bottom earlier, near the end of 1998, had already emerged from the mothball stage, thanks to increasing demand from China and elsewhere. They were, as a result, well on the road to recovery when the big price increases for base metals kicked off in 2004. So, while the gold miners have been widely shunned as ugly ducklings in recent times, the base metals sector has been enjoying salad days, reflected in multi-billion mergers and acquisitions and, of course, sharply higher share prices.

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Alex’s Notes: This is an excellent article. Richard Russel does an outstanding job of highlighting golds history, the way it has been de-monetized and swept under the rug of the American conciseness, and the way it is again rising to eminence.

This reminds me of what one of my mentors has said to me; “When the common man is buying, the generationally wealthy are selling, and when the common man is selling, the generationally wealthy are buying.” The wealthy have been buying gold and silver for a half dozen years, because they know where this is heading. One only need study the cycles of history to know what will happen. Short trends of two, four, even five years do not tell the story. But if you study gold over fifty years…a hundred….several thousand…a pattern will emerge that is shocking.

Gold will continue up, yes we will see sharp pullbacks, in fact those pullbacks will frighten a great number of investors out of their holdings just as they did in the last bull market, but the long trend here is going to be up. We have a long way to go until the Dow / Gold reaches parity. Exciting times indeed.
Russell: Gold, the great drama

Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
Mar 5, 2008

Extracted from the Feb 29, 2008 edition of Richard’s Remarks

The Great Drama Unfolds — Gold coins can be a bit difficult to handle. They are heavy, they are visible, and must be stored in a safe place. But for most people, gold coins (actual gold in one’s possession) has one great advantage — you’re not tempted to sell your coins on every decline or correction in gold. For this reason, many people have done better holding a smaller number of Krugerrands or American Eagles than have larger traders who have moved in an out of gold in an attempt to “beat the market.”

Some History — In January 1980 gold topped out at a price of 850 US dollars per ounce. Down goes gold — down and down, year after year until gold reaches a low of 256 in August of 1998.

There, despised and ignored, gold sinks to its historic bear market low. From its ignominious low of 256, a new primary bull market is born. But 28 years of decline has soured the US public on gold. If they are interested at all, they abide by the wise men of the government and the Federal Reserve. “Gold is history,” they are told. “Gold is a story whose time has past.” “Gold is a relic from another era, a useless metal used in fancy dentistry and in jewelry.

Under a cloud of disinterest and false tales, gold starts up again. Slowly, almost surreptitiously, gold rises to 300, then to 400, to 500 and 600. Nobody is interested. Some of the old gold mining stocks move higher. They pay no dividends. Nobody is interested in them. Names from the past appear and are taken over. Dome Mines, Homestake and Campbell Red Lake. Skeletons dancing into view and then disappearing.

Gold works its way still higher. A few people remember that gold is money, and they suggest that gold be purchased. But frequent sharp declines and occasional deep corrections frighten the early buyers of gold. They take their profits. Nevertheless, the metal reaches the 700s. A small group of admirers known facetiously as “gold-bugs” urge their followers to buy gold. “It’s cheap,” insist the gold-bugs, “gold is as cheap as dirt — buy it.”

Then, in January 2008, gold does the impossible. It breaks out above its old 850 peak-level of 1980. After 28 years of being held back, gold bursts is chains and breaks free. Gold pushes above 850 into space never seen before by the yellow metal. It’s like a prisoner who, having been held in a dungeon for 28 years, suddenly escapes from the darkness of his cell and emerges into the glare of sunlight.

Twenty-eight years of compression has been released. The advance above the 850 level is still quiet, almost eerie — but relentless. “It’s speculative nonsense,” growl the analysts, “it’s manipulation by a crazy element that is living in the past.” But gold continues to work higher. By February gold is nearing the thousand-dollar-an-ounce mark.

In the meantime, silver, the other monetary metal is pushing towards twenty dollars an ounce. Silver, that sold as low as 23 cents an ounce in 1932, is now selling close to twenty dollars an ounce. “Lowly silver at twenty bucks a pop, I don’t believe it.”

In the meantime, the US is dealing with an incredibly difficult situation. The nation is straining under the onus of a potential housing collapse. The new Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben. S. Bernanke, is fearful that the housing disaster will send the nation into recession and worse — deflation. Bernanke is well aware that the two thirds of US families own their own homes, and that consumer buying is responsible for 70 percent of the Gross Domestic Product of the US. On top of everything else, the great banks of the US are in trouble. Bernanke must save the banks and he must hold back the forces of deflation.

But good Lord, what about inflation? The Fed has made its decision. Their first task is to keep the US out of the grip of recession. This allows gold and silver to further express themselves. The lid is off 28 years of compression and imprisonment. The great bull market in precious metals pushes higher. In the background, twenty central banks from around the world print their fiat paper in an orchestrated effort to insure prosperity.

Meanwhile, the great gold bull has broken free of its chains. A strange and unprecedented union of forces has emerged. The US public is unaware of the great phenomenon that is playing out before their eyes. Somewhere ahead, the US public will enter the bull market. Will it be in 2008, in 2009, in 2010? The timing, as we might suspect, is known only to the mysterious gods of the market.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell030508.html

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This isn’t some unexplained phenomenon. Martians have not invaded the US Treasury. There are real, measurable reasons behind the dollars demise, and its not rocket science.

Many of you may not remember when gasoline was .25 per gallon. There was a time, if you do not remember or were to young to remember, that this was the case.

Some people think the value of gas has really gone up ten times since then, but has it really? Or is there some other, sinister power at work here?

Interestingly, when you could buy four gallons of gas for a dollar, we also had a very different type of money.

The USD once upon a time was ‘backed’ by gold and silver, which meant that you could take a ’silver or gold certificate’ (what our money used to be called) and hand it in at the US Treasury, the the Treasury was required to give you silver or gold for it.

Todays systems is very different. If you pull a dollar bill out of your pocket, and you look at the top, you will see that is says “Federal Reserve Note”. What does that mean? Well a note, in financial terms, is a promise to pay something of value at a later time. The question here is, pay what?

Today, if you took your Federal Reserve Note to the US Treasury, and asked them to give you ’something of value’ for your ‘Note’, what do you think would happen? They would probably call the police and have you carted off, is what would happen.

So back to the point of the article, why is the Dollar Collapsing in value? The answer is, that because the dollar is no longer backed by anything of value, then the government can create as much of it as it wants, as you can see by the chart below:

So what affect does this have on the Dollar’s Value? Well simply, whenever there is more of something it is worth less. One of the fundamental requirements of money is that it remains scare. If Dollars were as common as rocks lying on the ground, they wouldn’t be worth very much now would they?

We see this taking shape in the form of less demand for Dollars, all around the world. OPEC is in discussions of de-pegging from the dollar, oil producing nations are starting ask for payment in oil in currencies other than the dollar, China has indicated it intends to diversify is national reserves out of Dollars and into other assets, and you have Trillions of Dollars in newly created Sovereign Wealth Funds, whose sole purpose is to buy hard assets around the world with ’surplus’ Dollars before the Dollar becomes worthless. It has gotten so bad, in fact, that the Dollar, once honored and coveted in China, is now seen as your neighbors garbage.

It can’t be that bad, you say. Well actually, it can. The chart below shows how far the purchasing power of the Dollar has fallen since 1913 when we created the Federal Reserve System:

So if you think about it, its not that gasoline, food, real estate, vehicles, etc have actually gone up in value, perhaps its more like your dollars buy much less than they did even 4 years ago, so maybe it takes more dollars to buy the same thing?

So now that you have me really depressed you might ask, what the heck is the solution?

The solution dear reader lies in gold and silver. Gold has retained its purchasing power for thousands of years, while governments have messed with various currencies that go up and down in value. An ounce of gold thousands of years ago would clothe a man very well. Today, and ounce of gold will also clothe a man quite nicely.

If you really want to preserve your wealth, take a serious look and investigate gold.

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The Dow currently trades 13% below its all-time record high. For some further perspective into how the stock market is actually performing, today’s chart presents the Dow divided by the price of one ounce of gold. This results in what is referred to as the Dow / gold ratio or the cost of the Dow in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes 12.9 ounces of gold to “buy the Dow.” This is considerably less that the 44.8 ounces back in the year 1999. When priced in that other world currency (gold), the Dow is in the midst of a massive eight year bear market!

Historically, a full cyclical bull run in gold (we are in one now, it started in 2000) is usually topped out  when the DOW/Gold ratio hits parity, or very close to it. In other words, the time to sell gold is either:

a) When the price of the dow comes down to match the price of an ounce of gold
b) The price of gold rises to meet the DOW
c) A combination of the two (most likely scenario).

For those thinking we are topped out in gold, we have a lot farther to run yet.

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by Bob Chapman
The International Forecaster
Thursday, 18 February 2008

The following are some snippets from the most recent issue of the International Forecaster. For the full 20 page issue, please see subscription information below.

…

The Illuminati have a huge problem. They have buried it and no one in the media is talking about it, at least not in the correct order of magnitude. They are quaking with fear as they consider the possibility of this problem being unleashed. The problem lies in the Land of the Rising Sun, or should we call it the Land of the Sinking CDO. You have already heard the tripe about there being about $400 to $500 billion of CDO and other asset-backed derivative losses worldwide, and we have already shown you that these losses are way understated and that the delays in their recognition are downright fraudulent. We also showed you that total losses on asset-backed bonds and derivatives could be as much as $4 trillion in this past issue of the IF, and that does not include the tens of trillions in potential losses in credit default swaps and interest rate swaps. So why does Japan represent a potential ground zero for the biggest financial catastrophe of all time? You saw our previous report that of the $400 to $500 billion of potential losses admitted to so far, $150 to $200 billion of those losses may have Japanese banks as their “proud” owners. Yet we don’t hear a peep from Japan.

We have Citigroup, Northern Rock, SocGen, UBS, IKB, Merrill, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and many others from the US and Europe who have already written off over a hundred billion with sovereign wealth fund bailouts of 75 billion and some being on their way to partial or even total nationalization, but not so much as a hiccup emanates from Japan. Could it be that Japan is also undergoing a catastrophe somewhere along the lines of George Romero’s “Night of the Living Dead?” Well, if Japan has 30 to 40 percent of the paltry $400 to $500 billion that has been admitted to, what if they have 30 to 40 percent of the $4 trillion. That could wipe out their entire forex surplus, the largest in the world, and take the whole financial system down with it when it goes. Where’s the connection to the rest of the world financial system? You need look no further than the Ultimate Yen Death-Star. When the magnitude of these losses are finally grasped by the Japanese and foreign investors alike, the Nikkei isn’t just going to tank, it is going to be vaporized! And when all that liquidation occurs, guess what happens. Everyone sells their equities and corporate bonds and toxic waste and gets yen and Japanese bonds in return (along with truckloads of gold).

That will drive the yen and gold into the ozone and the carry trade and yen shorts into the deepest, darkest depths of Mordor! Your looking at a sub-100 yen and the biggest financial double-whammy of all time as the toxic waste ignites the Ultimate Yen Death-Star in a thermonuclear pyrotechnics display that will be remembered for millennia. The hapless Japanese bankers must be sick as they gather together to discuss these problems. This is not just about saving face. They are completely and utterly terrified! We suspect wakizashi short swords may be in short supply in the not too distant future. Sepuku anyone? All that liquidity, over a trillion dollars of carry trade bets, plus leverage, will be totally drained from the system in a matter of days, and stock markets worldwide would crash and burn like the Hindenburg. This would make 1929 look like a drop of water dripped into an Olympic-sized swimming pool. Oh, and incidentally, any sovereign wealth funds or other investors who try to bail out any of these banks, investment banks and bond insurers in Japan or anywhere else in the world is a first class moron. By the time this whole thing plays out, those who try to bail these flim-flam operations out may well never see so much as a penny of their investment back again. They may as well load 100 dollar bills into earth movers and then back them up and dump them into the cauldron of an active volcano for a crispy critter Crane confetti cookout! What idiots! How about buying billions in gold instead, knuckleheads?!

Silver and oil were the big performers this week and supported gold well as it yawned at the IMF news that its perpetual gold sale was on again. Spot silver went on a rampage to a new 27-year high of 17.60 on Tuesday after gold came close to testing its all-time high on Monday, hitting about 927, only $10 per ounce short of a breakout. Oil finished the week strongly by peaking out at 96.67 and settling at 95.50. Gold and silver will consolidate along with resource stocks in the near term and we see new records being set in the weeks ahead. And don’t forget that the IMF sales, even if approved, will not take place until well after this seasonal rally is over. Economic new is simply abysmal and precious metals are going to continue to shine under these circumstances. We note that some 3000+ contracts of February gold futures are still open as of Thursday’s close. Could it be that someone is holding out for delivery? We’ll have to see. That would be a nice test case of 10 metric tonnes. Large specs must seriously start to consider building cash to demand some physical delivery. Central banks are all insolvent. Their gold is parked and it ain’t goin’ nowhere. Let’s get radical!

The Fed’s interest-rate cuts last month have failed to lower borrowing costs for many companies and households. That means soon there will be one or probably two more ½% cuts.

Taxpayers should ask Congress why they are bailing out borrowers, lenders, investment banks, bank and brokerage houses who all committed fraud?

There are urgent proposals before Congress and the neocons for a bailout of the banking, investment banking and insurance industries. This would allow them to keep profits and lay off the losses on the public. There is more than $1 trillion in loses still to be accounted for. You can be sure our Parliament of Whores will sell us out again.

Market adjustments worldwide triggered by the real estate and CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligations) and SIV (Structured Investment Vehicle) collapse and the credit crisis has triggered the loss of $5.2 trillion – 50 of 52 share indexes worldwide ended January lower.

Wait until the investors and Wall Street see the write-offs over the next two years and the drop in earnings as a result. In January the Turkish market fell 22.7%; China 21.4%; Russia 16.1%; India 16%; Paris 12.3%; London 8.9% and New York was off 6%. Just under half of the major markets lost more than 10% of their value. The FTSE in London lost 9% and 16.5% over the past three months. Paris lost 15.3% over the past three months.

Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman
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I keep yammering on about inflation, because there are alot of bozo’s our there (see: Market Analysts) who keep telling people to trade in FOREX. Heres the deal, if there is a ship in the center of a fleet of ships and it is sinking in inflation (picture the USA), and there are a bunch of other ships around it and they are sinking as well, then it doesnt matter which ship the rats jump to, its still going down the crapper!

The only solid ground right now is in commodities! Gold, Silver, Energy, and Food. 15 year run.

The United States is the center of the deflationary economic slowdown, inflation is more of a worldwide phenomenon. Inflation rates in China, for example, are higher than they are in the United States. Prices of apartments in Buenos Aires…subway tickets in Paris…hamburgers in Singapore – everything is going up.

In the past, inflation has always had a national identity card. The inflation of the ‘20s was concentrated in Germany, where hyperinflation wiped out the middle class and set the country on the road to ruin. Investors…like Jewish refugees 10 years later…had to move their savings to France or England to escape it. Likewise, in Argentina, the inflation of the ‘80s was easily avoided – just put your money in a Miami bank.

Traditionally, the dollar was a haven for people wishing to protect themselves from inflation – even though the dollar itself was losing value rapidly . In 1935, a U.S. dollar had about the same purchasing power as a U.S. dollar from 1800. Then, it began a steep decline…erasing 95% of its value over the next 70 years. Still, people with money usually preferred to keep their money in dollars, rather than in…say…australs or zlotys. The dollar may have been losing value, but at least it was doing so in a gentle, “controlled” manner.

But times have changed. Now, there’s a new kind of inflation – it is practically everywhere…in every country…and it risks spinning out of control. That is why gold is hitting new highs – against almost every currency…and every other market…in the world.

News came yesterday, that the Fed has quietly lent some $50 billion to member banks using a new method – an “auction facility” that allows banks to put up unconventional collateral. The government no longer reports a figure for M3, the broadest measure of the money supply, but shadow analysts say it is going up at 15% per year – about six times faster than GDP growth.

Most of this money ends up outside the United States. That’s where most U.S. Treasury debt ends up too. The dollar is America’s leading (and highest margin) export. This has forced foreign central banks to create more of their own currencies to buy up the dollars; otherwise they would face a competitive disadvantage, in that the dollar would fall against their local currencies, making their exports more expensive on the world market.

And so, the whole world is being smothered in paper. Paper dollars…paper euros…paper rand…paper cordobas…paper money of all sorts. Where can the investor go to get away from this paper? What can he buy to protect himself from inflation? How can he get some air?

That’s right. Gold. And it’s why this bull market in gold could be even bigger than the last one. Then, in the late ‘70s, it was primarily the U.S. dollar that suffered from inflation…and primarily Americans, and perhaps Arab oil exporters, who were buying gold. The Russians were still building cars that didn’t run. The Chinese were still recovering from their Great Leap Forward of the ‘60s and dismantling their backyard steel mills. And the Indians weren’t even awake yet.

Now, the whole world is different. It is full of more paper money than ever before…and full of billions of alert people who will want to protect themselves from it. They might try stocks…or property…or Rembrandts…but traditionally, the surest, simplest solution is gold.

For those of you out there thinking that the yellow metal is too expensive to buy now, you are halfway right. But youre a smart cookie, and you will see a good opportunity for what it is. Get a FREE Beginners Guide to Gold and Silver Investing, and register to receive a crash course in why some people will benefit while others are losing their shirts, and a little known secret on how to seriously cash in on gold.

Jeremy Grantham says he thinks housing prices in the United States will go down 20% to 30% from their peak. That’s a potential loss to Americans’ implied wealth of as much as $6 trillion. This is part of what leads Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf to describe the coming slump in the United States as the “mother of all meltdowns .”

Wolf refers to the work of New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, who argues that the housing decline will put 10 million homeowners upside down, with more mortgage than house. It will lead to collapsing credit…defaults…and huge losses to lenders. It will also bring about a big cutback in consumer spending and unavoidably push the United States into a deep recession.

One of the wild cards of the doomsday scenario is the performance of the derivatives market. No one knows exactly what is in some of these instruments…and no one knows how they will hold up in a crisis.

One thing we do know here at The Daily Reckoning is that they will not hold up as expected. We know that because the assumptions behind them were, fundamentally, nonsense. The most sophisticated mathematical model in the world is not worth a campaign promise if the theory behind it is wrong. And the idea that you can model future prices on the basis of past prices with any predictive reliability is simply wrong. Speaking loosely, it is the problem noticed by Heisenberg when was trying to observe and measure atomic particles at the same time…or ethnologists when they are watching savages gootchy goo. The act of observation causes distortions. As soon as you notice “stocks outperform bonds over the long-term,” for example…you cause a distortion in the stock market. People buy stocks, expecting better performance. Buying drives up prices. Then, higher initial prices bring lower rates of return over the long run.

Using Black-Scholes pricing model…and other sophisticated tricks…the salesmen proved that they could produce higher yields with lower risk. The models, of course, depended on the future being like the past. But never before had investors been offered such opportunities to distort the price curve!

The derivative market exploded in the 2001-2006 period, with annual rates of growth (from memory) of nearly 100%. But then, subprime debt blew up…and buyers started asking questions. In 2007, the derivatives market fell apart. And so far this year, new derivative sales are off 93% from the year before. CDOs, SIVs, Monolines…they’ve all had big trouble.

“Many CDOs could be worth less than 5 cents on the dollar,” Strategic Short Report ’s Dan Amoss tells us. “Final values won’t be clear until the loans supporting these securities go through the default and recovery process.

“Many Wall Street firms cannot simply confess their final losses, because delinquencies have just started picking up from generational lows. Also, these firms may soon discover that the insurance covering defaults of their CDO holdings is worthless.”

And now comes the Financial Times with more trouble. “CPDOs are at risk,” say the FT . What are CPDOs, we had to ask? They are Constant Proportion Debt Obligations…a kind of derivative on a derivative…a bet on the derivative index.

Not knowing anything about them ourselves, we turn to someone who does for an opinion:

“If these [structured products] do get unwound en masse, the effect on the market will be horrible,” said credit strategist Barnaby Martin at Merrill Lynch. “Between $1,000bn and $2,000bn of synthetic CDOs have been issued over the last four years. Any unwinding will likely be crammed into a much shorter time period.”

Bottom line is, we have a ways to go before its all clear, and when ships cant see the harbor through the fog, smart captains buy Gold and Silver.

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