World’s Largest Gold Refiner Runs Out of Krugerrands (Update1)
By Claudia Carpenter

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) — Rand Refinery Ltd., the world’s largest gold refinery, ran out of South African Krugerrands after an “unusually large” order from a buyer in Switzerland.

The order was for 5,000 ounces and it will take until Sept. 3 for inventories to be replenished, said Johan Botha, a spokesman for Rand Refinery in Germiston, east of Johannesburg. He declined to identify the buyer.

Coins and bars of precious metals are attracting investors as a haven against a sliding dollar and conflict between Russia and its neighbor Georgia. The U.S. Mint suspended sales of one- ounce “American Eagle” gold coins, Johnson Matthey Plc stopped taking orders for 100-ounce silver bars at its Salt Lake City refinery and Heraeus Holding GmbH has a delivery waiting list of as long as two weeks for orders of gold bars in Europe.

“A lot of people are worried about the dollar, they’re worried about inflation and now we have geopolitical risk with what’s happening in Russia,” said Mark O’Byrne, managing director of brokerage Gold and Silver Investments Ltd. in Dublin. O’Byrne said his company’s sales are up fourfold this year, heading for a record since its founding in 2003.

Gold rose to a record in March and is 25 percent higher than this time last year, while the dollar dropped 7.4 percent against the euro. Silver is up 15 percent in the period.

Salt Lake

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said European Union leaders meeting in Brussels Sept. 1 will discuss sanctions against Russia after it recognized the independence of two regions of Georgia. U.K. Foreign Secretary David Miliband said yesterday Russia was trying to “redraw the map” of Europe.

Johnson Matthey’s Salt Lake City refinery doesn’t have the capacity to meet investor demand for 100-ounce silver bars, said spokesman Ian Godwin in London. He wouldn’t comment on whether the company may expand capacity or end production.

The refinery usually gets orders for 1,000 ounce bars from banks and silver grains from jewelers, Godwin said.

Rand Refinery has manufactured, marketed and delivered more than 46 million ounces of Krugerrands since the gold coin was introduced in 1967, according to the company’s Web site. Krugerrands are minted at the South African Mint from gold coin blanks supplied by Rand Refinery.

Gold for immediate delivery rose $2.29 to $829.19 an ounce by 5:24 p.m. in London. Silver gained 10.5 cents to $13.60.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 28, 2008 12:44 EDT

Beijing swells dollar reserves through stealth

Last Updated: 3:24pm BST 26/08/2008
The Telegraph.co.UK

Rule changes for commercial banks are acting as cover for exchange rate intervention, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

China has resorted to stealth intervention in the currency markets to amass US dollars, using indirect means to hold down the yuan and ease the pain for its struggling exporters as the global slowdown engulfs the economy.

A study by HSBC’s currency team in Asia has concluded that China’s central bank is in effect forcing commercial banks to build up large dollar reserves, using them as arms-length proxies in a renewed campaign of exchange rate intervention.

Beijing has raised the reserve requirement for banks five times since March, quickening the pace with two half-point rises in late June.

This is having major spill-over effects into the currency markets because banks in China have been required over the last year to hold extra reserves in dollars rather than yuan. The latest moves have lifted the mandatory deposit from 15pc to 17.5pc of total lending since March.

“China has used the pretext of reserve requirement hikes to help slow yuan appreciation. We estimate that the PBOC [central bank] intervened by about $49.6bn in June,” said Daniel Hui, the bank’s Asia strategist.

Beijing has also slashed the amount of foreign debt banks operating in China can hold. The effect is to oblige the banks to become net buyers of dollars, halting the flow of foreign “hot money”.

Given the sheer scale of China’s foreign reserves - now $1,800bn (£970bn) - any shift in its exchange policy now ripples around the globe. The covert buying may help to explain at least part of the explosive dollar rebound over recent weeks.

There is little doubt that the key driver behind the wild currency ructions this summer has been the blizzard of dire data from Britain, Europe, Japan and Australasia. The mounting danger of a full-fledged recession across the club of rich OECD nations appears to have caught the markets off guard.

The closely watched Dollar Index reached an all-time low in March. It crept up gradually in the early summer before smashing through resistance in July.

The world’s currency system is swivelling on its axis. Central banks in Asia and Europe have stopped raising rates, and some have begun to cut aggressively. The Federal Reserve is no longer nakedly exposed. Indeed, investors are already starting to look ahead to the next round of Fed tightening.

The 18pc slide in oil prices from a peak of $147 a barrel in July has added juice to the dollar rally. Russia and the Middle East petro-powers tend to recycle a high proportion of their vast earnings from oil into the eurozone, either by purchasing European bonds or expensive imports.

A Bundesbank study found 40 cents of every dollar spent by eurozone countries on oil imports comes back again one way or another. The figure for the US is just 10 cents. This trade bias has given oil a new character as a sort of anti-dollar driving the currency markets.

Even so, the China effect is a key ingredient in the dollar comeback. Beijing’s Politburo is clearly disturbed by the sudden downward turn in the economy as export markets freeze, and surging wage inflation in the country’s manufacturing hubs eats away at profit margins.

“They are now more worried about growth than overheating, and you are seeing that play out in the currency markets. There has been a remarkable change of view,” said Simon Derrick, exchange rate chief at the Bank of New York Mellon.

China’s PMI purchasing managers index fell below 50 for the first time in July, signalling an outright contraction in manufacturing output. Hong Kong’s economy contracted 1.4pc in the second quarter. The Politburo has rushed through special rebates for textile producers now caught in a ferocious downturn.

Much of the clothing, footwear and furniture industry has been hit, leading to mass plant closures in the Pearl River Delta.

“During the first half of this year, about 67,000 small and medium-sized companies went bankrupt throughout China, leaving more than 20m people out of work,” said the National Development and Reform Commission. “Bankruptcies of textile and spinning companies have numbered more than 10,000. Two thirds are on the brink of bankruptcy.”

Last week’s rebound on the Shanghai stock market stalled on fading hopes of a fiscal stimulus package. “It is unrealistic to expect the government to rescue the market,” said Li Ka-shing, chairman of Hutchison. “Speculators should be very cautious now. The worst is not over in the global credit crisis.”

Lehman Brothers warns of a risk that a housing slump and the 55pc equity crash since October could combine with a global downturn to set off a “vicious cycle”. House prices have already fallen 18pc in Guangzhou and 9pc in Beijing. Prices are now falling in cities that make up over half China’s population.

Alex’s notes: Pay special attention to this, because it is very rare to see a bank admit that the underlying credibility and stability of its creditworthiness is based upon gold.

Gold reserves more important than before-Bundesbank

• Reuters
• , Friday August 22 2008

BERLIN, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Germany’s Bundesbank on Friday rejected calls that it should sell some of its gold reserves to help boost the slowing German economy, telling Reuters financial and political uncertainty make the reserves even more important than before.

“Gold sales are not a suitable way to sustainably consolidate the public accounts,” the Bundesbank said after a query about trade union proposals that it sell gold to fund some of a 25 billion euro ($37 billion) economic stimulus package.

“National gold reserves have a confidence and stability-building function for the single currency in a monetary union. This function has become even more important given the geopolitical situation and the risks present in financial market developments.”

The Bundesbank is the world’s second-largest holder of gold after the U.S. Federal Reserve, and has sold just 20 tonnes out of total reserves of over 3,000 tonnes in the past five years.

These sales were to allow the German finance ministry to mint gold coins, unlike the much more active sales programmes of other central banks which wanted to shift their portfolios from gold to a more diverse array of assets.

To reduce volatility in the price of gold , 15 European central banks agreed in 2004 to limit gold sales to 500 tonnes a year over the next five years.

The Bundesbank is expected to make a formal statement about any gold sale plans around September, when the final year of the Central Bank Gold Agreement starts.

“The Bundesbank reaches decisions about the nature and size of reserves autonomously.

The board of the Bundesbank decides every year afresh about changes in the level of its gold holdings,” the central bank said.

(Reporting by Rene Wagner, writing by David Milliken; Editing by Gerrard Raven)

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Washington Is Quietly Repudiating Its Debts

Posted at: Wall Street Journal

By GERALD P. O’DRISCOLL JR.
August 22, 2008; Page A15

Will the U.S. Treasury repudiate its obligations to its creditors, be they citizens or investors around the world? Most observers would answer “no” without hesitation. But Congress, with the complicity of the White House and the Fed, has arguably embarked on a stealth repudiation.

In his famous treatise, “The Wealth of Nations,” Adam Smith noted there had never been a “single instance” of sovereign debts having been repaid once “accumulated to a certain degree.” We may have reached Smith’s threshold.

Corbis

The bond markets are certainly not protecting creditors from the risk of what Smith called “pretended payment” through inflation. Nor did they do so until far into the great inflation of the 1970s. Not until late 1977 and into 1978 did the bond market fully incorporate the reality of the debased dollar, by demanding higher long-term interest rates.

How can this happen? Markets are supposed to be forward-looking and efficiently price in all relevant risks. Yet monarchs have been repudiating debt explicitly and implicitly throughout recorded history.

Many years ago, the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises offered an explanation. He suggested that while you can’t, in Abraham Lincoln’s words “fool all of the people all of the time,” you can fool all of the people at least some of the time. And this is easier to do if a central bank has in the past earned credibility in fighting inflation.

In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker worked together to get inflation under control. They were greatly assisted by the “bond vigilantes,” traders who were by then exerting discipline in bond markets by bidding up interest rates to double-digit levels. The outcome of the Reagan/Volcker policy of tight money and low marginal tax rates was not only a great economic expansion, but also a great boost to the Fed’s credibility. The Fed proved it was able and willing to withstand political heat in the fight against inflation.

Alan Greenspan built on the Volcker legacy and, at least in the early years of his long tenure, continued the fight against inflation. In the 1990s, when Mr. Greenspan faced his own banking crisis, he was able to adopt a policy of comparatively low short-term interest rates. Banks used the opportunity to borrow cheaply and lend profitably to grow their way out of the crisis. Credibility allowed the Fed to engineer a recovery without stoking inflation fears.

After the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2000, and then 9/11 and its aftermath, Mr. Greenspan again relied on the Fed’s credibility to drive down the federal-funds rate to 1% and then hold it there for a year. This time there was a rumbling of doubts. But eventually the Fed did reverse course to preserve its inflation-fighting credentials, and briefly hiked the federal-funds rate to over 5%.

Now Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has decided to try for a hat trick, and spend the Fed’s reputational capital on an easy credit policy. He is doing so under considerably more adverse circumstances than his two predecessors.

Thanks to Reagan and Volcker — and the credibility he built up on his own early on — Mr. Greenspan did not face strong inflationary forces in the 1990s. But Mr. Bernanke began his easy money policy with inflation already picking up steam. Worse, we have the accumulated effects of seven years of loose fiscal policy.

Yes, we had the Bush tax cuts, but their beneficial, growth-enhancing effects have long since been swamped by an explosion of government spending. As Milton Friedman long ago taught us, government spending is the ultimate tax on the economy: It extracts real resources from productive, private use and puts them to unproductive, public use. And there is the rub.

Not even a President Obama and a Congress controlled by House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid is going to hike taxes enough to pay for all their spending. Indeed, they have shown themselves quite unwilling to engage in honest budgeting. The best example is saddling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with $500 million of new (off-budget) obligations to fund cheap housing at a time when the two companies were already on the ropes. Is it any wonder the stock prices of these two companies are imploding?

The markets have long assessed the debt of Fannie and Freddie at AAA because of the Treasury’s guarantee, now explicit. But no one has ever seriously assessed the Treasury’s creditworthiness with Fannie and Freddie on its books. The public guarantee is entirely open-ended and unbounded. The appetite of the two companies to balloon their balance sheets and take on risk has not been curtailed. Meanwhile, Congress spends apace with new programs for constituents in an election year.

We are at a Smithian moment, in which the temptation for the Fed to spend its last dime of credibility may prove irresistible. Investors are already being taxed by inflation and can rationally expect that tax rate (the inflation rate) to be raised going forward. Wages are not keeping up. Main Street is being taxed to fund Wall Street excess. Anyone who works, saves and invests is exposed to confiscation of his capital and earnings through inflation.

If the Fed maintained its independence of action and said no to the inflationary finance of Congress’s profligacy, we wouldn’t have reached this point. But the Fed has forsaken that independence amid an absence of leadership.

Perhaps, as rarely happens, Adam Smith will be proven wrong. Let us hope so, because hope appears to be all we have.

Mr. O’Driscoll is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former vice president and economic adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Wall Street Journal reports gold coin shortage, cites GATA, and the US Mint suspension of Gold Eagle Sales

Submitted by cpowell on 09:21AM ET Thursday, August 21, 2008. Section: Daily Dispatches 12:15p ET Thursday, August 21, 2008

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Wall Street Journal today published a long story on the cover of its Money & Investing section about the U.S. Mint’s suspension of sales of 1-ounce gold eagle coins. Like GATA, even the Journal apparently could not get an official statement out of the Mint, but the newspaper did quote from a memorandum purportedly sent by the Mint to coin dealers. The Journal’s story, appended here, quotes GATA at the end.

GATA was contacted today by an international news organization that is also interested in the story and also has been unable to get comment from the Mint. The Mint’s unaccountability is, to say the least, disrespectful and incompetent. But then the truth about government dealings in gold is seldom easily obtained.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

The Eagle Has Been Grounded

Mint Halts Gold-Coin Sales After Supply Depleted Amid Price Drop

By Ianthe Jeanne Dugan
The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, August 21, 2008

As gold prices tumbled from their highest level ever, investors and collectors loaded up on one-ounce “American eagle” gold-bullion coins. The buying spree came to an abrupt halt this week after the U.S. Mint stopped selling the coins for the first time since production began 20 years ago.

“Due to the unprecedented demand … our inventories have been depleted,” the Mint — part of the U.S. Treasury Department — told its dealers Friday. “We are therefore temporarily suspending all sales of these coins.”

The move shocked sellers and collectors of the coins, which are the most widely traded in the U.S. Suppliers became angry as they turned away customers. Theories about the decision’s underlying cause ran rampant — from investors in gold futures to Russia’s invasion of Georgia.

“This whole thing started about the time the Ruskies made their move,” a collector noted in an Internet chat room called goldismoney.info. “It may very well be that the USGovt is preparing for the real financial meltdown by hoarding all remaining gold flows.”

The Mint says it simply was wiped out. It has sold 311,000 ounces of the coins this year — about 50% more than in all of 2007. In the first few weeks of August alone, buyers snapped up 63,500 ounces.

“We are working diligently to build up our inventory and hope to resume sales shortly,” the Mint wrote in a memo to dealers.

The American-eagle bullion program was launched in 1986 with the sale of gold and silver bullion coins. One-ounce coins have a face value of $50 and $1, respectively, although the coins trade close to the market value of the underlying metal. After the 2008 silver coins, known as silver eagles, surged in popularity earlier this year as silver prices rose, the Mint began rationing them.

Dealers were upset by the latest blow. “If I don’t have something to sell, I lose business,” says Rand LeShay of A-Mark Precious Metals, a Los Angeles dealer.

The Mint announced the suspension Friday, the day prices of gold-futures contracts — bets on what gold will cost later — finished below $800 an ounce for the first time this year. The drop accelerated a buying spree among investors. Gold began bouncing back and late Wednesday traded at $810.30. In March, gold futures hit a high of $1,003.20 an ounce.

American-eagle gold-bullion coins are made from 22-karat gold mined in the U.S. The front side’s design was inspired by August Saint-Gaudens’ $20 gold piece, minted from 1907 to 1933. On the reverse side is a nest of American eagles.

The coins are sold by the Mint to 10 dealers world-wide for a premium above the price of gold. These dealers resell the coins, which now fetch about $815.

The American Precious Metals Exchange, an online gold dealer, posted an alert about the Mint’s move, generating confused and angry responses. Many customers said they were mystified because the silver-coin rationing followed a price surge, while the gold suspension followed a drop.

“The situation is strange and doesn’t fit the ‘normal’ supply & demand economic model,” the firm wrote to customers.

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, an advocacy group, said the Mint’s move proved financial institutions are colluding to set prices.

“The suspension is overwhelming evidence … that the commodities exchanges are being used … as part of a massive scheme of manipulation of the precious metals, currency, and bond markets,” the group wrote on its Web site.