Archive for April, 2009

How Does $9000 Gold Sound?

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009


Marc Chandler

In recent days the Canadian and Swedish central banks have joined the majority of other G10 central banks by indicating that they too may engage in quantitative easing now that the interest rates have been reduced to 25 and 50 basis points respectively. The ECB is wrestling with ways to extend its own form of quantitative easing and an announcement is likely at its next meeting on May 7th.

While some observers have focused on the potential debasement of the US dollar by the aggressive monetary and fiscal policies of both the Bush and Obama Administrations, many investors are worried about the viability of the whole universe of paper money.

As Gillian Tett, award-winning journalist at the Financial Times, put it earlier this month, there has been a four-decade long experiment with fiat currencies not backed by gold or silver. This crisis is so profound that increasingly it appears to have shaken confidence in the experiment. At the same time, the crisis looks to have widened the range of possibilities.

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New Article: The “Optimum” Gold / Silver Ratio

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

Very interesting article on the gold / silver ratio by Paul Saur.

An excerpt:

In many expert opinions, at least 50% of all silver mined in history is now gone, unrecoverable by any means, while at least 80% of all gold probably remains. So, the current ratio of existing silver to existing gold is probably more like 5:1, and not 10:1. On top of this, most of the remaining silver exists in things like jewelry, silverware, or coins hoarded by people wearing “tinfoil hats,” and I doubt that the “tinfoils” will relinquish their silver at anywhere near current price levels. Therefore, in regards to world bullion stockpiles the 5:1 ratio is flipped, with gold bullion actually being around 5 times more plentiful than silver bullion. So, we now have a price ratio of 70:1, but an availability ratio at current prices of 1:5. In this light, remember that silver (not gold) is the metal that is indispensible for modern society. Can you say “unstable?”

View the full article here.

China calls for reform of global monetary system

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

Alex’s Notes: Anyone who has been following Rapid Trends already had an idea this was coming.

What nation is willing to stand by and watch is buying power (China with approaching $2Trillion of USD denominated foreign reserves) dwindle because of rampant monetary inflation?

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WASHINGTON (AFP) — China called Sunday for reform of the global currency system, dominated by the dollar, which it said is the root cause of the global financial crisis.

“We should attach great importance to reform of the international monetary system,” Chinese Vice Finance Minister Li Yong told the spring IMF/World Bank Development Committee meeting in Washington.

A “flawed international monetary system is the institutional root cause of the crisis and a major defect in the current international economic governance structure,” Li said, according to a statement.

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New Article Added: Gold Its Role within the Modern Investment Strategy: Armstrong

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

Martin Armstrong, of the Princeton Economic Institute on the reasons gold rises in value during times of unsound government practices.

An excerpt:

The growth of Government itself has been the single greatest cause of the reduction in the standard of living for all Americans. Where in 1920 it once accounted for 20% of the Civil Work Force – today the government has exceeded 33%. If you simply add all the non-producing government employees, unemployed and welfare groups, you will quickly approach 50% of the Civil Work Force. This means that every privately employed worker must be taxed at least 50% to pay for the unproductive group within society. As this group grows, it reduces the standard of living for the whole.

Read the full article here.

ECB’s Wellink welcomes China gold purchases

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

Alex’s Notes: This is nothing more than blatant posturing.

It is obvious that China is fully aware that the gig is up.All of the grandstanding by western nation central banks is doing nothing more than putting another nail in the coffin.

China, on the other hand says nothing and allows the west to make complete and utter fools of themselves, while happily buying up the gold that the west is stupid enough to sell.

If the IMF were to sell its entire 3000+ tons reserve I am certain that China would be more than happy to spend less than 10% of its foreign reserves of USD (that are rapidly dropping in value), to become the worlds second largest owner of gold after the USA.

Doing so would not just strengthen China’s bid for the Yuan to become an accepted reserve currency, but it would cement it.

An important thing to note, that few are considering today, is that once the world shuns the USD for settlement of global trade because of much stronger alternatives, all of those USD will find their way back home.

Those currency units, added to the currency units currently floating around the US Domestic market, will then compete with the existing currency units for goods.

The supply demand effect  caused by this could have a strong impact on prices, as well as make an already dangerous currency cocktail into a potential hyperinflationary explosion.

I certainly hope thats not the case.

If it were, history shows that those of us who own gold will see a massive transfer of wealth in our direction.

Got gold yet?

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AMSTERDAM, April 28 (Reuters) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Nout Wellink welcomed China’s move to buy gold, but said the ECB plans to renew a central bank agreement that limits its gold sales to the open market.

China revealed on Friday it had secretly raised its gold reserves by three-quarters since 2003, increasing its holdings to 1,054 tonnes and confirming years of speculation it had been buying.

‘That China has bought gold doesn’t surprise me,’ Wellink said on Tuesday. ‘This is a positive development and I appreciate the move.’

Asked whether the ECB had been approached for sales of gold to China, Wellink said the ECB plans to renew for a five-year period its commitment to the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA), under which European central banks agree to limit their gold sales onto the open market.

Celente Predicts “Total Economic Collapse”

Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

Gerald Celente at it again, this time he is saying we will see a complete and total collapse of the US Economy.

Thats a pretty bold prediction.

Video:

Judy Shelton blasts the IMF for being..well…the IMF

Monday, April 27th, 2009

The IMF’s Gold Gambit

The fund’s misuse of bullion reserves is crucial to its plan to use the financial crisis to expand its power.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) deserves credit, figuratively speaking, for cleverly manipulating the financial troubles of emerging and low-income nations to procure a fresh infusion of capital for itself. But its tactics at this month’s G-20 summit in London — where President Barack Obama signed off on tripling the IMF’s lending resources — should not hoodwink anyone, least of all American taxpayers who pay the largest share of IMF expenses.

[Commentary] Martin Kozlowski

Lost in the lofty talk about putting the IMF in the center of world economic recovery is the fact that the organization has been quietly attempting to ensure its own survival by seeking permission to engage in gold sales. While IMF officials insinuate the receipts would be used to help poor countries, the real goal is to set up a permanent endowment fund for the IMF.

The U.S. should not replenish the coffers of a multilateral bureaucracy that quite literally lost its reason for being on Aug. 15, 1971 — the day President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window” and brought an end to the Bretton Woods agreement, which allowed countries to convert their dollar holdings, via the IMF, into gold at a fixed price. Instead, Congress should call for the IMF’s dismantlement and restitution of its assets.

The most solid asset owned by the IMF, purely as a legacy of its original incarnation, is gold. The IMF holds 3,217 metric tons (103.4 million ounces) of gold, which makes it the world’s third largest official holder. Actually, it’s a misnomer to say the IMF “owns” the gold since the bullion belongs, according to the IMF articles of agreement adopted at Bretton Woods in 1944, to its member nations.

Nevertheless, the IMF is now seeking to sell a considerable chunk of those gold holdings — some 12.9 million ounces – which it insists are exempt from restitution to members in the event of IMF liquidation. Its reason? Between December 1999 and April 2000, to fund its Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, the IMF arranged to sell gold which it held on its books at a price of roughly $50 to two member countries, Brazil and Mexico, at the market price of $355. It put the profits of close to $4 billion in a special HIPC account; simultaneously, the IMF accepted back the gold sold to Brazil and Mexico in settlement of their financial obligations of that amount.

Bottom line: The balance of IMF holdings of physical gold was left unchanged, although it raked in the substantial difference between the gold’s market price and its book value. The IMF asserts a propriety claim over the 12.9 million ounces it “acquired” through these transactions.

Unfortunately, artful accounting — from the deceptive practice of carrying gold at its former official price (about $52) rather than its current market value (about $914), to the arcane usage of an intangible monetary unit called a Special Drawing Right (SDR) — has become the IMF’s defining characteristic.

The IMF once served as administrator for the gold-anchored Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates among currencies. It now stands for laxity, for endless government fixes, for ineptitude and political compromise. The IMF preaches budgetary discipline one moment, only to abandon it under pressure from the current crop of presidents, prime ministers and potentates who authorize its spending.

Now the IMF is attempting an end-run around the U.S. Congress, as it quietly moves toward selling gold, most likely to China. Why does the IMF need the money? Just three years ago, the bloated organization (half of its 2,600 staff are economists) was nearly defunct; headquartered in Washington, D.C., the IMF was desperate to create an endowment fund to provide for its continued existence.

But in 2007, a specially convened committee of “eminent persons” helpfully suggested that if the IMF could sell those 12.9 million ounces of gold and set up a trust fund with the windfall profits, the investment returns could plug the gap between its administrative expenditures and the amount it earns as an intermediary that channels funds from rich countries to poor countries.

Sound familiar? Only one problem: IMF gold sales must be approved by an 85% voting majority of its members. The U.S. has a 17% vote; thus, the IMF cannot sell gold without the explicit consent of Congress. But Rep. Barney Frank (D., Mass.), who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, has indicated his openness to approving IMF gold sales — conditional that some of the receipts be used to “help finance debt relief for poor countries.”

Ah yes, it is always about helping the poor. Which is why the IMF emphasized its willingness to assist “poor countries” in its carefully calibrated request for additional resources from G-20 nations. Not surprisingly, the London stratagem proved successful. It was readily embraced by G-20 leaders eager to demonstrate how much they care about the human consequences of economic meltdown. Ironically, the IMF has been widely blamed by recipient nations in Africa and Latin America for perpetuating poverty. Excessive transfers to less-developed countries have the perverse effect of suppressing the entrepreneurial reserves of citizens. It is only when nations manage to get off the global dole that they are taken seriously by global capital markets and can start to achieve bankable growth.

The IMF has shown an uncanny ability to transmogrify into whatever politically acceptable form necessary to ensure its survival. Throughout the intervening decades since the end of Bretton Woods, the IMF has scrambled to redefine itself as (in rough chronological order): a global debt-collection agency, an economic-research organization, a referee for financial disputes among the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, and a front to permit Western nations to avoid being blamed for problems arising in the transition to democratic capitalism for formerly communist nations.

In its latest manifestation as global financial surveillance monitor and G-20 sidekick, the IMF has taken to delivering somber pronouncements about the world economic outlook, concluding in mid-April: “The current recessions are likely to be unusually severe, and the forthcoming recoveries sluggish.” And what does the IMF recommend? “Aggressive monetary and, particularly, fiscal policies could strengthen and bring forward recoveries.”

This sage advice conveniently dovetails with the agenda of Mr. Obama, who, as mentioned earlier, agreed to tripling the IMF’s lending resources at the London summit. And to remain au courant with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn has also called for expanding “the regulatory perimeter to encompass all activities that pose economy-wide risks.”

Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s powerful central banker, has authored a proposal for international monetary reform that would replace the dollar with “a super-sovereign reserve currency managed by a global institution.” Citing “the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies,” he suggests the SDR could assume this role. In the view of Mr. Zhou, the way to enhance international monetary and financial stability is to have member countries gradually entrust their reserves “to the centralized management of the IMF.”

Before anyone gives any credence to the notion of having the IMF take on the task of issuing a new global currency, however, we need to remember that the original Bretton Woods system worked precisely because the dollar was convertible into gold at a fixed price. And gold is real money.

Congress should just say no.

Ms. Shelton, an economist, is author of “Money Meltdown: Restoring Order to the Global Currency System” (Free Press, 1994).

We’re fleeing high-tax Britain, say City tycoons

Monday, April 27th, 2009

Alex’s Notes: If you think this isnt in the cards for the USA, I encourage you to seek the knowledge of people who live the way you want to live, and not what is fed to you buy the media and the government.

Two of Britain’s best known entrepreneurs are considering leaving Britain in protest against Alistair Darling’s new 50 per cent tax rate, as leading figures from business and the City warn of a talent exodus.

Hugh Osmond, the pubs-to-insurance entrepreneur, is thinking about a move to Switzerland. Peter Hargreaves, the £10 million-a-year co-founder of Hargreaves Lansdown, the financial adviser, is looking at the Isle of Man or Monaco. More are likely to follow.

Osmond, whose net worth is estimated at £230 million, said: “A lot of people will be off. It’s highly unlikely that I will continue to have the UK as my country of residence. It’s just as easy to work from any close location – Switzerland or wherever.”

Hargreaves, facing an extra £500,000 on his tax bill, warned: “I won’t pay, I’ll leave.”

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Meredith Whitney on Banking and Liquidity

Sunday, April 26th, 2009

Great video with Meredith Whitney, good insights into the banking industry and the current contraction in liquidity.

Michael Kosares: China turns IMF gold sales into a wet noodle

Sunday, April 26th, 2009

By Michael Kosares
Centennial Precious Metals, Denver
Saturday, April 25, 2009

http://www.usagold.com

There may be some misunderstanding about the increase in Chinese gold reserves. The bulk of that gold has come from purchases of their own domestic production, not open-market purchases, so the impact on the price is indirect. But because China is the largest gold producer in the world and it is retaining the bulk of its production for reserve diversification, the impact is significant.

Consider, for example, if South Africa had been able to retain the bulk of its production when it was the prime producer. Today it would be one of the richest countries in the world. As Pierre Lassonde reminded us in the recent past, there haven’t been any large gold discoveries in many years. That puts China in a very strong position with respect to the gold market, and from what we can gather, it has decided to play that card.

Because of its strong exports, China doesn’t need to export gold as South Africa did to sustain and strengthen its economy. China will be able to build gold reserves and make the yuan stronger — its financial muscle being the weight of its gold holdings, which are likely to grow year to year and perhaps even accelerate as new fields are brought into production. In addition, as the price of gold rises so too will the value of China’s gold reserve. The currency advantage is the one thing the press reports so far have overlooked, and as time passes, that advantage may be the most important.

Now I realize that all of this is not quite so glamorous as China buying up every loose official-sector ounce, but at the same time what I have here will have a greater long-term impact than any purchase of a one-off official sector sale. True to its reputation for patience and steady progress toward its long-term goals, China has taken the golden path — and now China wants the world to know about it.

Last April in my “Golden Gut Check” essay (http://www.usagold.com/amk/abcs-goldengutcheck.html) I mentioned the importance of China keeping its gold production home. At the time the market overlooked it as a major factor in pricing. Now, with publication of a gold reserve gain that occurred over a five-year period, hard numbers are available. China seems to want to make a point and the general market seems to have recognized its importance. (The China gold story made the front page of the Financial Times’ weekend edition.)

Taking this discussion a step further (and this might be worth another essay by itself), at some point the Chinese might be very interested in a gold revaluation that compensates it for its dollar stockpile, and others might be willing to go along with this as the least offensive means to bringing balance to the international economic equation. That gold revaluation could occur informally with the market moving steadily higher over the years in a free-market dynamic, or it could occur formally as a return to an international gold standard. I hardly need to explain what they would mean to gold owners the world over.

While we ponder the growth of the Chinese gold reserve, let’s not set aside the other major gold story from China during the past week. China’s request that the International Monetary Fund sell the entirety of its 3,217-tonne reserve coincides with China’s announcement on its gold reserves and is intended to deliver a message to the financial markets: China sees gold as an important part of the international monetary scheme — a scheme that may evolve into a system. If China were to purchase the full 3,217 tonnes at $1,000 per ounce, the price would be $103 billion. With China’s foreign exchange reserves at $1.95 trillion, the price of all the IMF gold would be a paltry 5.25 percent of China’s total reserves, leaving China with $1,847 billion in total reserves apart from gold.

China has turned the bludgeon of IMF gold sales into a wet noodle.

(And, by the way, China would then become the largest holder of gold in the world after the United States and the European Union.)

The message contained in China’s actions of the past week is unmistakable. China knows that gold is making a comeback almost as a force of nature.

Gold’s return to the center of value will be dictated by history and events with or without the help of governments. I believe China is preparing for that day, and from its perspective apparently it cannot prepare fast enough. The first step toward stability for both individuals and nation states is a step in the direction of gold, and China has taken it.

New Article: Evaluating Gold and Silver Juniors

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

Excerpt:

Evaluating the merits and future prospects for a junior exploration company is a highly subjective process. Intangibles such as political risk, financial risk, market risk, commodity risk, technical risk and a host of other variables confront companies across the entire minerals industry spectrum. Nonetheless, no matter what the relative size of the company or the commodities segment it’s actively involved in, the best place to start your evaluation is with management.

This is especially true for junior gold explorers, the segment of the minerals industry that accounts for the largest proportion of global exploration expenditures and, predictably, the vast majority of new gold discoveries.

In reality, these are the “feeder companies” for the major gold producers whose primary focus is usually weighted to production (i.e. bread and butter issues) rather than exploration. In order to maintain the annual production rates that underpin their share price valuations, these majors need new sources of gold production and junior explorers are usually the ones that feed their insatiable appetites. Not surprisingly, when push comes to shove they are generally willing to pay a king’s ransom for undeveloped, economically viable gold resources in the ground.

View the full article here.

China Increases Gold Reserves 76% to Fifth-Largest in the world

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

By Eugene Tang and Bob Chen

April 24 (Bloomberg) — China boosted its gold reserves by 76 percent since 2003 and has the world’s fifth-biggest holding by country, said Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

The nation increased its reserves by 454 tons to 1,054 tons through domestic purchases and refining scrap metal, Hu said in an interview with the Xinhua News Agency today. The amount is more than Switzerland’s 1,040 tons, World Gold Council data show, and is worth $31 billion at current prices.

China has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves at $1.95 trillion as of March 31, according to state administration data. The holdings have climbed about sixfold in the past six years as the country had record trade surpluses and inflows of foreign investment. Gold prices have almost tripled to more than $900 an ounce from $337.

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China reveals it has 1,054 tonnes of gold reserves –Xinhua

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

REUTERS
By Alfred Cang and Lucy Hornby

SHANGHAI/BEIJING, April 24 (Reuters) – China revealed on Friday that it had quietly raised its gold reserves by three-quarters since 2003, increasing its holdings to 1,054 tonnes and confirming years of speculation it had been buying.

Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), told Xinhua news agency in an interview that the country’s reserves had risen by 454 tonnes from 600 tonnes since 2003, when China last adjusted its state gold reserves figure.

The world gold market has been buzzing with talk about China buying gold for years as the country’s foreign exchange reserves have rocketed, and speculation has picked up since the global economic crisis threatened to weaken the value of those reserves.

Gold prices jumped on the news and were up 1 percent on the day at $910.80 an ounce at 0540 GMT. By a Reuters calculation, China’s holding of gold would be worth $30.9 billion at current prices.

China recently reported the change in its gold holdings to the International Monetary Fund and would include the latest change in central bank reports and balance of payment statistics, Hu said.

China’s reserves were now the fifth biggest in the world, with only six countries holding more than 1,000 tonnes, she said.

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Did you know?

Saturday, April 25th, 2009

Fantastic video on the progression of information technology, researched by Karl Fisch, Scott McLeod, and Jeff Brenman

Chinese Yuan to become the next world reserve currency?

Friday, April 24th, 2009

Alex’s Notes: I have written about this subject on several occasions, and it seems the timetables for this are stepping up.

This is a great article, of particular interest to me is the following excerpt:

HIDDEN CONFLICT AT THE G20 MEETING

It is my firm belief that the Chinese controlled the G20 Agenda totally, with direct coordination from the Russians, but made gentlemanly agreements not to reveal their control. My firm belief is that the Chinese and Russian leaders at the G20 Meeting in London had contentious private meetings. Premier Wen Jiabao and Dmitri Medvedev probably informed President Obama that the USDollar is dead as a uni-polar global reserve currency, that the Chinese yuan would expand its global function, that the Special Drawing Rights could fill a void until more specific new currencies could be launched in the future, but that the choreographed glitz of the London meeting could proceed on its carefully planned stage. Several nations, led by China and Russia, demand both respect and positions on global banking institutions. China is a major global creditor nation, funding $10.4 million in USGovt debt per second. What an incredible factoid.

The G20 Meeting exposed an important erupting rift with clear divisions having emerged. Three distinct global camps are clearly at work on the monetary stage, led by US-UK, Germany, and Russia-China.

1) The United States and Britain are alone in the monetary desperation camp. The US relies upon unbridled monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, employing the familiar type of failed devices that might push the limits on a potential USTreasury Bond default, in response to national insolvency on many fronts. Great Britain stands weakened in the US camp, harmed by big bank failures, a collapse of housing prices, and recently the UK Gilt auction failure.

2) The Europeans (led by Germany & France) object to uncontrolled federal spending. German Finance minister Peer Steinbruck accused the British of ‘Crass Keynesianism.’ The Germans openly oppose larger, broader, and continued stimulus packages. The German Govt will not embark on plans that repeat the mistakes of the past.

3) The Russians and Chinese push hard for a global reserve currency alternative to the USDollar. They permit the IMF device of Special Drawing Rights to serve as a Straw Man. Russian leaders boldly suggested in open court that gold should be included in whatever basket of currencies and commodities supported the new reserve currency.

1. China is funding the US Government at a rate of $10.4 million dollars a second. Holy cow batman.

2. Russia is openly demanding gold as a currency backing.

If you have read my articles about what will happen to the price of gold if it is used to back a currency, you know what this means.

Got gold yet?

The full article below:

In a series of maneuvers, Chinese officials have revealed their strategy implementation in a very broad set of steps. Beijing leaders plan to establish the yuan currency as a global reserve currency.

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Inflows to gold ETFs hits all-time high in Q1: WGC

Friday, April 24th, 2009

NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) – Investment inflows into gold-backed, exchange-traded funds jumped to an all-time high in the first quarter, boosted by a combination of risk aversion and economic uncertainties, the World Gold Council said on Wednesday.

Investors bought a record 469 tonnes in gold ETFs during the quarter, surpassing the previous high of 145 tonnes set in the third quarter of 2008. Total bullion holdings in gold ETFs rose to 1,658 tonnes in the first quarter, WGC said in its quarterly investment report.

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China says has 1,054 tonnes of gold -Xinhua

Friday, April 24th, 2009

Alex’s Notes: China’s gold reserves appear to have increased substantially since last officially reported.

According to the World Gold Council, China’s reserves in gold has been stable at 600 tons for a number of years.

An increase to 1054 tons is substantial.

04.24.09, 12:17 AM EDT
CHINA-GOLD/ (URGENT):China says has 1,054 tonnes of gold -Xinhua
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BEIJING, April 24 (Reuters) – China has 1,054 tonnes of gold in its state reserves, Xinhua news agency quoted Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), as saying on Friday.

Hu said the country’s reserves had risen 454 tonnes since 2003 and were now the fifth biggest in the world, with only six countries holding more than 1,000 tonnes.

China had increased its stocks by buying on the domestic market and from domestic producers.

(Reporting by Chris Buckley; Editing by Tom Miles and Ken Wills)

Elizabeth Warren interview on the Daily Show

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

Elizabeth Warren is the head of the Congressional Oversight Panel tasked with auditing TARP.

Some great videos, enjoy.

One quick note: I dont agree with her thoughts on whats broken and how to fix it. Regulation is a bunch of garbage. Inevitably what always happens when you rely on regulation is the bankers/wall st slicksters always get to the regulators and buy them with sex, drugs, and ridiculous amounts of money.

The problem has nothing to with regulation or the lack thereof. The problem is a broken monetary unit, backed by nothing but air.

“Unjust weights and measures are an abomination unto the Lord”. – we have to start with a just weight and measure, one that isnt going to change in time. The flat out bottom line fact of the matter is that the USD is broken because it has no stable measure of value and can be created by the trillions at the press of a button.

A fiat currency system IS the problem, not banking regulation. Cant build a house on sand and expect it to stand.

Elizabeth Warren interview, Part 1

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart M – Th 11p / 10c
Elizabeth Warren Pt. 1
thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Economic Crisis Political Humor

Elizabeth Warren Interview, Part 2

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart M – Th 11p / 10c
Elizabeth Warren Pt. 2
thedailyshow.com
Daily Show
Full Episodes
Economic Crisis Political Humor

Silver use in solar panels, electrical components, and next generation cars: Ted Butler

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

A Blast From The Past

By: Theodore Butler & James R. Cook

When you follow silver and think about it as intensively as I do, it’s hard not to focus on the day-to-day developments. But it’s also important to step back and try to look at things years or even decades ahead. It is easy to get caught up in what’s happening now, but true foresight encompasses a much longer time frame. Get the long term right and you don’t have to sweat the short term.

For several months or longer, on almost a subconscious level, I have been thinking about the long term in regards to silver and electricity. I first wrote on this topic eight years ago, in just the 14th (of more than 300) article I’ve written for Investment Rarities http://www.investmentrarities.com/06-27-01.html

Silver has unique properties which makes it superior to any other substance. Importantly, it is the best conductor of electricity. This means that electricity travels faster while less of it is lost with silver as the conductor. If there is one thing that has impacted the world over the past 100 years it is the widespread use of electricity. Copper is the second best conductor of electricity and costs much less than silver. About 750 times more copper is mined than silver and much more of it is used in electrical applications. But when performance is critical, silver is the electrical king.

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Ten Reasons To Buy Silver Now

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009

Ted Butler

Amid all the recent attention I’ve placed on the continued manipulation in silver, some may mistakenly assume that diminishes the case for silver. Nothing could be further from the truth. I’m convinced that silver is a better buy than ever before. Here are detailed reasons why I believe that is the case.

One:

The near-term emotional temperature of the market is low. There is no bullish “fever” where uninformed investors are driven to buy silver because of a sharply rising price. That will happen, but it’s not true now. While silver is still above the price lows of last fall and higher than year-end prices, the recent price action is nothing to write home about. The price has been below most of the important moving averages, causing silver to be “oversold.” This is a much better time to buy than when prices have already climbed and many are buying just because prices are rising. At those times the risk of a sharp sell-off is high. Now the risk of a prolonged price decline is much lower. Now is the time to buy low.

Two:

Leveraged speculators who normally buy COMEX futures contracts and Over The Counter (OTC) derivatives do not hold a historically significant number of long contracts. The big dealers have been so successful at forcing long speculators out of the market, that the speculative long position is at important low levels. This means that long speculators have already been forced to sell and no big selling from them appears probable. On any rise in price, they are likely to buy, adding a force to rising prices. Buy before they turn into buyers.

Three:

Available wholesale silver inventories appear to be tight. These physical silver inventories are falling into stronger hands. For decades the world’s largest stockpiles of silver were the COMEX warehouse inventories. These COMEX inventories were considered mostly commercial in nature with some portion being held for investment purposes. The COMEX inventories peaked at around 280 million ounces in the early 1990’s, and accounted for 90% of all visible silver inventories. After the introduction of silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), there was a profound shift in the location and structure of world visible silver inventories.

Now, the combined inventories in the ETFs and other investment vehicles tower over the holdings in the COMEX by almost 4 to 1. (Over 400 million ounces in the ETFs compared to 120 million oz in COMEX inventories). Given the long-term nature of ETF investment holdings, this massive and historic shift in inventory composition means much less silver is now available to the market. This will exert a strong upward influence on price.

Four:

All signs indicate that physical investment demand for silver on both a retail and wholesale basis is strong and could surge further. Until a few years ago, there was no net silver investment buying for decades. That pattern has changed with a vengeance. Clearly, the introduction of the ETFs have played a major role in this investment transformation.

The strong buying that we have seen does not appear to be “hot” money, but sober and determined accumulation. It wasn’t surging prices prompting buyers over the last six months. It’s due to a growing awareness and conviction about silver’s real supply and demand fundamentals. Importantly, there has been practically no buying of silver on a leveraged or margin basis. It’s mostly been cash on the barrel. These strong silver buyers will wait for significantly higher prices before selling. With higher prices inevitable at some point, the hot-money crowd should come in and blow the doors off the price.

Five:

Silver production is tightening, given the byproduct-nature of silver mining. As I have written recently, base metals production like copper, lead and zinc appears to have fallen significantly, also reducing the production of silver as a byproduct.

Six:

World economic and financial conditions appear lined up to favor higher silver prices, no matter what occurs. If financial conditions remain unsettled, flight to quality buying in silver appears likely. If the world does return to better economic growth patterns, silver will benefit as a result of increased industrial consumption. Heads silver benefits, tails it also benefits.

Seven:

More investors than ever have come to realize that the silver market has been manipulated and the government regulators and exchange officials are unable to persuasively address the growing evidence of a silver manipulation. The manipulation debate has become widespread in metal circles. It isn’t going away. The best the regulators have been able to do is to stall and pretend to be investigating. Fewer people are being fooled by such actions. A scam like the silver manipulation can’t continue when so many know about it. This scam will end suddenly and sharply in a price jump to the upside.

Eight:

Industrial demand for silver will continue to grow in the years ahead. New uses for silver appear regularly. A robust worldwide economy will initiate a new phase of silver demand. Higher prices will not diminish this demand because small amounts of silver are used in each industrial application.

Reasons nine and ten:

Silver prices are cheap on several important objective measurements. Silver is cheap compared to its own recent price. It is down more than 40% from its highs of one year ago, in spite of the strongest physical demand in history. More investment silver has been purchased over the past year than at any other period in history. At precisely the same time that prices have declined so sharply, more ETF-type buying has occurred than ever before and more Silver Eagles have been sold by the US Mint than ever before. We have witnessed the highest premiums on all retail forms of silver in history. This isn’t just me saying silver is cheap, this is the investment world voting with its collective wallet. Clearly, there is something wrong with this picture that can only be explained by manipulation on the COMEX and the OTC market by a few giant financial institutions, led by JPMorgan.

Silver is cheap on a cost of production basis. Never have the net operating results of so many different silver miners been so poor. The common denominator is too low a price for their main product. Silver is up three-fold from the lows of a few years ago, yet the silver mining industry still suffers. That’s because the cost of production has risen faster than the price of silver. That must be rectified.

Silver is dirt cheap relative to gold. While there is less above ground silver than gold, silver’s price has rarely been this low compared to gold.

The manipulation that explains why silver is so cheap cannot exist in a bona fide physical shortage. If the price stays low, growing numbers of investors buy real silver. That makes it harder for the manipulators to keep the price contained with paper derivatives. Some fret the scam can be continued indefinitely. If it were just a question of printing more money or more paper derivatives, perhaps that might be true. But it’s not about an unlimited supply of paper silver, it’s about a limited supply that guarantees the manipulation will end soon. The termination of controls on the price of silver will be something we look back upon and marvel over how long it existed. Just make sure you are looking back while holding as much real silver as you can.

Ted Butler
April 20, 2009


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